Monday, November 2, 2015

< = > Less equals to more

21 Benefits of Owning Less

Minimalist living is countercultural. It is contrary to every advertisement we have ever seen because we live in a society that prides itself on the accumulation of possessions.
But there is more joy to be found owning less than can be found pursuing more. Consider just some of the benefits of living with fewer possessions.
1. Spend Less  | Choosing to accumulate only the essential often results in financial freedom.
2. Less Stress | A minimalist home is significantly less stressful.
3. Easier to Clean | The fewer things in our home, the easier they are to clean.
4. More Freedom | The sense of freedom that comes from minimalism is truly refreshing.
5. Good for the Environment | The less we consume, the less damage we do to the environment.
6. Be More Productive | Our possessions consume our time more than we realize.
7. Example for my Kids | These are valuable life lessons they will never learn in the media.
8. Support Other Causes | Money is only as valuable as what we choose to spend it on.
9. Own Higher Quality Things | More is not better… better is better.
10. Less Work for Someone Else | Create a less stressful life today and lessen the burden on someone else too.
11. Be Happier | Owning fewer possessions makes you happier.
12. Do Work You Love | Own less stuff. Choose work you love.
13. Freedom From the Comparison Game | Our culture begs us to own more.
14. Time for Things that Matter Most | The more stuff you own, the more your stuff owns you.
15. Visually Appealing | Make your home more appealing.
16. Not Tied to the Past | Release the past to create a better tomorrow.
17. Less Places for Your Heart | Invest your heart into meaningful things.
18. More Opportunity for Rest | Take a deep breath.
19. Find Things Easier | Own less clutter. Find stuff quicker.
20. Live in a Smaller Space | For most families, a house is the costliest investment they’ll ever make.
21. Display What You Value Most | Communicate what is most important.
http://www.becomingminimalist.com/minimalism-benefits/

Saturday, September 26, 2015

Bear markets already started

The most obvious one.....

Hang Seng Index already plunged more than 24%


Singapore market also plunged by 20%


Can't imagine what will happen when S & P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial enter bear market.

Will these markets get even more depressed with another 20% down? Very likely.

What about KLCI which just entered in a correction territory despite of so much bad news such as 1MDB scandal created so much uncertainty and rapid Ringgit depreciation?


My view is worse is yet to come. I won't go posting a bear case everyday like what I did in 2007/2008 cycle. I will let the gravity rules - the markets will fall on its weight.

Just forget about the noise of 1MDB or Federal Reserves that keep everyone guessing on the timing of a rate hike.


Tuesday, August 11, 2015

Thursday, July 9, 2015

Wednesday, July 1, 2015

Long time no post


If you are a vivid follower of the stock market, the recent plunged of Shanghai stock market was due to deleveraging. It can just declined more than 20% in 2 weeks. The above chart looks scary to me. The margin is even higher than the tech bubble. It will be too late to run when the margin calls are here.

'Black Friday' sweeps over stock market

By Dai Tian (chinadaily.com.cn)Updated: 2015-06-26 16:34
'Black Friday' sweeps over stock market
Investor at a securities brokerage in Huaibei city, East China's Anhui province, June 26, 2015. [Photo/IC]
Chinese stocks suffered a "Black Friday", with the ChiNext index, a Nasdaq-style board ofShenzhen-listed growth enterprises, plunging 8.9 percent as fears saw leveraged investorsjettison their holdings.
The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index dived 7.4 percent to 4,192.87 at the close, itssteepest fall in five months, while the Shenzhen Component Index slumped 8.2 percent to14,398.79.
"Signs of the market edging down have triggered panic among investors, many of whom areleveraged and forced to close their position," said Yang Delong, chief strategist at ChinaSouthern Asset Management.
Data showed pullback by leveraged trading as the outstanding balance of margin-debt at theShanghai Stock Exchange fell from a record high for a fourth day on Thursday to 1.42 trillionyuan ($229 billion).
"The market will remain volatile but likely to rebound if not in a short term," the strategist toldChina Daily, adding that it's too early to say the country's year-long bull market has peaked.
The market view diverged however as Morgan Stanley advised clients to refrain frominvesting in mainland shares in a report on Friday, saying the top for the cycle has beenreached.
Nearly 2,000 stocks tumbled by the daily limit of 10 percent on Friday, among whichtechnology shares and small companies led the rout.
"The decline is part of an automatic adjustment in response to the rapid surge earlier and isthe result of a market mechanism, amplified by liquidity fluctuation and deleveraging," saidZhang Xiaojun, a spokesman for the China Securities Regulatory Commission, at the weeklybriefing on Friday.
Despite the sharp correction, market liquidity is abundant and the economy has shownstronger signs of stable growth, he added.
The Shanghai gauge has surged nearly 30 percent since the beginning of this year and 124percent over the past year until Thursday.
"The deleveraging is healthier for the market after all," said Yang, adding that he recommendsblue-chips whose valuations are below the historical level and defensive sectors such asbeverage and insurance stocks.
The CSI 300 Index slumped 7.9 percent to close at 4,336.20 on Friday.
Cai Xiao contributed to this story.

Thursday, May 7, 2015

When kings got dethroned.....

First, it was Bill Gross got dethroned as king of bonds and now we have Mark Mobious dethroned as king of emerging markets. Those basically believe in valuation practically got hammered and driven to the ground.


The End of Mark Mobius’s Reign as King of Emerging-Market Stocks

For a quarter of a century the name Mark Mobius has been synonymous with investing in developing markets. A bald, energetic, New York native who often dresses in white suits, Mobius is constantly tweeting and appearing on television from St. Petersburg to São Paulo encouraging investors to put money into fast-growing developing economies. A Mark Mobius comic book published in Asia in 2007 chronicled his globe-trotting exploits. (Really.) In the U.S. he was voted by his peers onto a list of the top 10 investors of the 20th century, putting him alongside Warren Buffett, Julian Robertson, and George Soros. What Bill Gross was to bonds, Mobius was to emerging markets: the King.
His reign may be coming to an end. Like Gross, Mobius, 78, has posted mediocre numbers in recent years and seen investors depart. While they still make money, 11 of the 13 largest funds that Mobius oversees at Franklin Templeton Investments have underperformed their benchmarks over the past five years. At his zenith in 2011, Mobius oversaw $39 billion. Today that figure is down to $26 billion. And in December, his flagship Asian Growth Fund lost its long-held position as the region’s largest to First State Investments’ Asia Pacific Leaders Fund. “He’s one of the few well-known managers in emerging markets,” says Todd Rosenbluth, director of mutual fund and ETF research at S&P Capital IQ. “Unfortunately, the track record is below average. Investors are more frustrated.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-06/mark-mobius-s-reign-as-king-of-emerging-market-stocks-nears-end-

There is only one kind of people that I know is making money now: traders and momentum traders.....If you don't belong to this special breed, be very careful. You can loose your shirt minus your pants....yes....pants(plural).

Sunday, May 3, 2015

Random thoughts on the markets

Waiting for major market corrections requires a lot of stamina. But I know if I give in now, I would really an idiot. Why?

Look at this chart.


S & P 500 is valued @ 21x PE ratio. Except the extreme bubble or of the chart during 2009 crisis, it is certainly at top of the valuation range. The median is 15 x. I always believe in reversion to mean.


KLCI is selling for 17 PE ratio. Again it is above the long term valuation and also at the top of trading range. Corporate earnings have been dissapointing. 



My only market that I used to be bullish while the rest of the world keep saying China was about to implode due to property bubble, crashing economy and shadow banking. As time goes by, my convictions were proven right. China is heading towards managed landing. China stock market is getting very pricey, close to 20x PE.


What is really worrisome the stock market is fuel by high school drop out and "da ma".

I don't think I am looking for the end of the world scenario but we certainly need a deep 20-30% corrections before the bull run can continue.

Please note that the cheap money is here to stay forever, is an illusion. Look the US unemployment is approaching full employment. It's close to 2006/2007 level.



Yet the interest rate stays ZERO?

No, it will not stay for long, at least not what 10 year treasury traders think. It starts to trend up.

To those who still swimming out there, just be careful. Just like Warren Buffett said: "A bull market is like sex. It feels best just before it ends."