It's now or much later.........

I've been wanted to capture my thoughts on plantation stocks over the weekend but there have been a lot of interruptions......some baby snails were literally ruining my plants so I've to harden my heart to get rid of them with a loaded pesticide water gun. Hasta la vista, baby!



The sector(plantation index) had a huge run prior to sub-prime collapsed and the Humpty Dumpty had a great fall. All were not lost, the market managed to stick back the pieces(with some help of all king's horses, all king's men and some luck of course). Since then it had a very successful recovery. The sector appeared to have been topped out in the early of 2011 and trapped in the downtrend for last 10-11 months.

The CRB index appears to have a similar pattern. It has been on the downtrend as well since the beginning of the year and the Baltic index is clearly looks like a Vietnam veteran having bad dreams, screaming at nights.



A main competing commodity to palm oil, soya beans, got hammered in September. They said they worry about global growth. They might be right, for once, I agreed with these traders. Damn! did I just shake my hand with them?????



Back to our KLSE, our top guns, i.e. heavyweight like Sime Darby, IOI Corp and KLK have been getting expensive. The valuation has caught up with price pretty fast. There are some issues and worries with these stocks(a story to be told in another day). Those market cap stocks between RM $ 5 - 10 B are also getting expensive. The valuation gap in fact had almost been eliminated. A lot of stocks with less RM 1 B had their days, justice had been served -- the valuation is also appear to be rich too. There are 2-3 more stocks like TDM is waiting for a handsome prince to kiss them. Don't let me stay like a frog forever, she said with her beautify winky eyes. Kiss me please.



Dividend yields are not that generous, on the average of 3+%, are indications of prices had surged too much. Some are even worse - less than 2% - telling us players are willing to go after capital gains only.

A few of the undervalued stocks have only a window of about 6 months, it's now or much later. The logic drives behind this premise is CPO price can still be firm due to the lower harvesting yields caused by heavy rainy seasons. When all stocks slide under water slides, pumping adrenalin will not equal to making money.

Take care all my friends.

Has Toyota lost its mojo?

What is mojo?

It's a noun. I know stupid. Be more serious.

It's something related to a magic charm when I looked up in Oxford dictionary.

Okay.

Has Toyota lost its mojo?

I would like to answer a question with a question. Why Toyotas' chiefs frequently shed tears?





http://youtu.be/OItBnWHjlFM

A doctor says it's got to do with biology.

Explain.

It's got to do with the level of testosterone.

How?

The higher the level of testosterone, the higher the level of aggression.

That makes sense, when the level of testosterone drops -- especially when they grow older -- they become more compassionate. Don't send them to kill a lion or else they........use your imagination to figure that out.

I see. When Toyota announced their withdrawal from F1, it's all about giving up something that they really passionate in exchange for something "bigger than my Alpha male ego" mission. It's painful you know. The future is not about something who can make a "beast" louder, stronger but about something is more friendly to our earth.

You mean there is a quiet revolution going on?

Yeah....check this out.



Can you feel the ice, not heat?

Driving L badge that starts at 168 k?

Yeah, it's very cool but you still have not answered my question.

Is it important?

Yeah.

Young man, young man. You don't like what you hear, don't you?

The young man had just turned into a classic stonewall. Muted.

All you care is UMW, isn't it young man?

Grin.

Drive carefully, don't flip like a turtle

It's fun to watch these World Rally Championship(WRC) pros flipped their cars like turtles. Most of them are rarely hurt because those cars were equipped with roll cages. A normal car is not, a driver will not survive any crashes like those in the video. Please drive carefully, especially it's a raining season now. Like investing, most people tend to think their driving skill is above average. I know you are good but there are many factors are not within your control - cows, snakes(yes, I met them once), elephants, dogs, spilled oil, rocks, other people lost control, etc......Live to drive another day people. Take care.

Christina's World

I love Andrew Wyeth's works. So much so that I was dreaming to buy one of his prints but my minister of finance stops me. He is one of the most celebrated American artists in the 20th century. His works were mostly contemporary realism, expressed in tempera and watercolor mediums. He has been referred as the people's painter because he painted mostly everyday's subjects around him, that kind of make an average Joe like me feels at ease.

One of the most famous piece is Chritina's world painted around 1948. I do not know what comes to your mind when you see this painting. Feminist would probably want to shoot him and me for promoting sexual objectification -- the curvy lady that you see. It's not what they think. They think we think women are weak and submissive, and an object of sexual pleasure. I do not wish to start a battle of sexes and I maintain that the world will be a wonderful world(less breakup or divorces) if a man behaves like a gentleman and a woman behaves like a lady, just like the old fashion way.

If you get to know the real story behind it, you probably will grab some tissues. Again, it's not what you think ............ you need it to wipe your tears.

Andrew Wyeth's world was shattered when his father met with an accident. His father was struck and killed at a railway crossing. My imagination could be too rich, I heard the rushing train, the scream and the smell of the blood. I felt my heart had just been pierced as I typed. The unspoken grief must be terrible. That was the turning point in his life at the age of 28. I felt it when I see the landscape was barren and his palettes was muted........the emptiness and tasteless world.

Something inspired him. He saw his neighbour Christina Olson sprawled on a dry field facing her house in a far distance. It broke my heart actually when I see her skinny hands. She suffered from an unknown disease, suspected to be polio, caused her unable to walk. Imagine that you were there, watching her crawling back to her house. It's a gigantic efforts. That was what inspired him. In his word, Christina "was limited physically but by no means spiritually." Wyeth further explained, "The challenge to me was to do justice to her extraordinary conquest of a life which most people would consider hopeless."

Added another link

I sometimes wonder investors really care about Corporate Governance(CG). Our actions do not seem to match with our words. They will only care when they lose money. From an illiterate, they suddenly will dress up something like this



They suddenly can argue so eloquently that everybody will be hypnotized, nodding their heads, screaming yeah GUILTY, GUILTY and GUILTY -- condemn those son of the bitch to hell. They forgot one point, it takes two hands, not one, not two left and right fingers, to clap. Yes, it takes two hands to clap!

Everybody knows the risk of having many fucking partners will have high chances of contracting AIDS. When they fuck, they don't even put on a condom. Be smart-lah. When they finally contracted with AIDS, they will argue the society is at fault, religion institutions have collapsed, law enforcement is zero and the list will go on and on..........

Have you visited a mad house? If you have not, I suggest you do. It will give you the best investing lessons in your whole life. Those people will argue so logically that you will begin to doubt that whether you are crazy or they are crazy. The best part is everybody is at fault but not them.

My "friends", ask ourselves, do we really care about CG? My gut feelings tell me otherwise. Why?

A "friend" of ours spends hours of his free time to write about CG but it has less than 200 clicks a day. For such a good blog, I think he deserves better than that. It ought to be on the link of every financial blog out there.

My blog is not that popular, [I can't help him to spread the fire -- added 10.30 am] but at least I voice out. I wish him the best of luck. Keep charging, keep up the good work.

P.S. Don't ask why I suddenly put up Demi Moore today.

Happy Thanksgiving Day

The US market will be closed tonight to celebrate Thanksgiving Day. It's a remembrance of the pilgrims rendered their thanksgiving to All Mighty God for his blessings. They were giving their whole-hearted thanksgiving to the Above for his guidance to see them through in the whole struggle and succeeded. But they remained humble, they did not pump up their fists, yeah I did it my way - unlike the Americans we see today. Instead they gathered men, women and children, probably have tears rolled down their cheeks, said it gratefully -- Thank You Lord.

I too want to thank you Lord for your mercy, kindness, blessing. I pray for other too that they will receive your love and kindness. Amen.

Market Commentatry

You may have noticed that I have been writing a lot about individual stocks lately. That's a preparation to wait for opportunity to show up. I find that the market participants are still a little too optimistic. They have not gone more bearish. I ran a list of FBMKLCI 30 and found that 20/30 stocks are below 200-day MA and another 10 stocks are abover 200-day MA.

Stocks below 200 MA
1. Tenaga
2. Genting
3. KLK
4. MISC
5. IOI Corp
6. MHB
7. YTL
8. YTL Power
9. HLB
10. CIMB
11. PCHEM
12. PBBANK
13. PPB
14. UMW
15. SIME
16. Gamuda
17. RHB Cap
18. Maybank
19. MMCCorp
20. AMMB

Stocks above 200 MA
1. HLFG
2. GenM
3. PETGAS
4. Maxis
5. Digi
6. Axiata
7. BAT
8. PLUS
9. PETDAG
10. TM

Upon closer examination, I found a lot of people still believe that they can find some kind of safe heaven. I would like to see these holders to be really be shaken. Then only, I think there is enough fear in the market that qualifies as blood on the street.

A lot of people are making references or anchoring 2008/2009 crisis. I do not believe S & P will make 666 or KLCI goes down to 800+ points. But I do believe S & P 500 ought to go down to about 950 +/- 50 points or KLCI to be around 1,250 +/- 50 points in another 3 - 6 months time.

2008/2009 was about credit crisis. It was about the whole world went into Matrix frozen moment. Can you imagine real business cannot get credit? Ships were grounded because nobody can get a Letter of Credit(LC)??? That was because the world did not how deep the derivatives hole was. European hole is known but they are just playing chess with one another - calling each other bluff. They may go to the extend of "manufacture crisis". I believe if they continue to play that game, the market participants will ask them to fly k***(wanted to use stronger words but points already got through, no dramatic words needed!).

This time is about a slow down or a low grade recession. We just have to shake off a little bit of optimism and bulls ought to charge!

P.S. Got a nice day off today. Had a nice morning hike and I felt extremely good. I need get back in shape -- and I have a plan to get up to Mount Kinabalu. Will make public announcement once I feel I'm fit enough. Have a good day everyone.