Wednesday, March 26, 2008

US still dominates?

Do you find life is a bit unfair? Indeed it is! When the US got into troubles: loose lending standards, John, Mike and Harry borrow a lot more than they can handle, the Fed will come in and rescue whenever the party is over, the world too, too big to fail?

Borrow US $ 3 to generate US $ 1 GDP growth? The worst thing is corporate sector is the one that keep leveraging, yours and mine money are funding them.



Look at the financial assets as a percentage of GDP!



The whole world keeps saying they cannot continue to cut rate to inflate assets. In recession periods, the stock market will not response, some will take more than 12 months. Mean while, there is another unknown bubble is in the making. How about US $ trade carry?



But the funny thing was, European and Asian were the one pouring money into US market in Q4, it was almost US $ 60 B?



If I was your fund manager yesterday, you would be willing to give me a lot of money to invest. However, you may change your mind again today, how about fire me? If you look at the economic indicator, most forecast Q4 GDP grew 0.6%, I was wondering how the market is going to react when they see red color on March 27 ( March 28 ours)? Big sell-off? OK, you are right, don't give me the money. I was suspecting the last few sessions rally more of fund managers window dressing to prop up their portfolio, Quater end-ma!

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