Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Market confidence at work ?

I was "speculating" for a rebound since beginning of the month. You may want to relook again my postings from beginning of this month on various indicators pointed to extreme bearish - at some point the market will have to rise again. But the way it rebounded surprised me, for example Hang Seng Index risen by 10% in 1 day - too aggressive.

Market sentiment is at work now, as soon as the central bankers around the world run out of bullets, the market will shift back to the recession fear - that will be the final capitulation I am looking for. For now, I will continue to pass this rebound though can go up a lot. Why ? Because I am a long only player in this "turtle portfolio".

Oct. 13 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Federal Reserve led an unprecedented push by central banks to flood financial markets with dollars, backing up government efforts to restore confidence in the banking system.


Paulson is getting very busy, busy, busy. They are going spend 250 billion to buy major banks.


(WSJ) WASHINGTON -- The U.S. government is expected to take stakes in nine of the nation's top financial institutions as part of a new plan to restore confidence to the battered U.S. banking system, a far-reaching effort that puts the government's guarantee behind the basic plumbing of financial markets.
[WASHINGTON - OCTOBER 13: Morgan Stanley CEO John Mack (L) and Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit leave a meeting at the Treasury Department October 13, 2008 in Washington DC. U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson invited the heads of major U.S. banks to meet at the Treasury Department while world banking chiefs are in Washington for meetings of the World Bank and the International Money Fund.

Morgan Stanley CEO John Mack (L) and Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit leave a meeting at the Treasury Department.

To kick off Tuesday's expected announcement, the government is set to buy preferred equity stakes in Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Morgan Stanley, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., Bank of America Corp. -- including the soon-to-be acquired Merrill Lynch -- Citigroup Inc., Wells Fargo & Co., Bank of New York Mellon and State Street Corp., according to people familiar with the matter.

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