Wednesday, January 20, 2016

Where are we now in the cycle of fear ?

In between dismissal and denial.

Friday, January 1, 2016

Turtleinvestor's Portfolio as at 31 Dec 2015

Happy New Year 2016!

Wow! Soon this Turtleinvestor's portfolio will be coming to 8 years. Was glad that not a single year that this portfolio had gone into a negative year. Out of 7+ years, there is only 1 year that it managed to achieve CAGR of 10%. That year was 2010, the first year, after the market hit a bottom in 2009 financial crisis. I have been either underweight equities or out of stock market since year 2011.

To hit 10% CAGR in 2014, Book Value needs to be around RM 134 k or about 34% from book value as at 31 December 2015. It is not a difficult and certainly possible to catch up during next bear market. How? Assuming KLCI hits about 1,000 points by 2018 or 2 years from 2016 and going back to 1,700 points in 2 years or 2020, CAGR will be close to 9.44%. How?

2015 RM 100 k + 4 years x 888 x 12 = RM 142 k. By the time it goes back to 1,700 or 70% up, RM 142 k x 1.7 = RM 241 k. By using a compounding calculator, period = 143. CAGR will be 9.44%.

My point? You may continue to see me to have about 3.5% for the next 2-3 years and a good possibility of huge spike in 1 year. Based on my years of long enough in the stock market, this is quite a normal trend that a value investor will have boring returns for many years until I hit a home run.

Now you know that why I have not quit yet and still in the game. That is the whole point: never lose money so that I can continue stay in the game.