Wednesday, September 30, 2009

Portfolio update - Oct 09

Added $ 888 saving for October 2009.

This September marks the anniversary of Lehman Brothers collapsed - a 150 years old instituition went under water. How could that possible? It was an important date to be remembered in the Financial History - Sept 15, 2008. That day was mother of worldwide financial melt down and panics. Let's pretend today is Sept 15, 2008, what would you do for the next 180 days after reading this chronology?

Aug. 9, 2007: French bank BNP Paribas freezes three funds with U.S. mortgage
exposure, helping to spark a worldwide credit squeeze.

Oct, 30, 2007: Amid mounting losses, Merrill Lynch CEO Stan O'Neal resigns.

Nov. 4, 2007: Citigroup CEO Charles Prince steps down.

Jan. 11, 2008: Bank of America agrees to acquire Countrywide Financial.

March 16, 2008: JPMorgan Chase agrees to acquire Bear Stearns at firesale price.

July 11, 2008: Mortgage lender IndyMac Bank becomes the third-largest bank failure in U.S. history.

Sept. 5, 2008: Silver State Bank is closed in the 11th bank failure of the year.

Sept. 7, 2008: The government seizes Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Sept. 15, 2008: Lehman Brothers files bankruptcy; Bank of America agrees to acquire Merrill Lynch.

Sept. 16, 2008: Government takes control of insurer AIG.

While reflecting and looking at my portfolio, I'm truly grateful that Turtle Portfolio survived the worst financial crisis in 80 years. I want to congratulate to all who had put in their real money and survived. Cheers!

Tuesday, September 29, 2009

To whom should I listened?

Internet makes it incredibly easy to get information but sometimes so much information makes me giddy. Who should I listened? A more practical question is: can I monetized on the views and information I received? What the hell is the meaning of monetize? Simple term, did you make money? When S&P took off from 666 to 1068, a 60% gain, those stay bearish would have missed out this fantastic gains while people are still arguing a bear rally, a 1929 great bear rally or extended bear rally........... A[t] some point in the future, the market will surely decline, those in bearish camp will surely stand up and tell the world, I told you so.

To monetize idea in the stock market, we got to get two dimensions right - direction of the market and approximately right time/duration which often easier said than done. If one anticipates the market to decline but that direction only happens two years later, can that person says he has foresight? The opportunity cost for a person who gets it right two years later will be extremely high ......... forgoing present two years gains. Worst still some did not short stocks and probably can only be rewarded with highest honor medal but without money.

What am I saying? My definition of right or wrong is simple, if the price does not behave according to my thesis within 3 months, I am wrong. Go back to drawing board and re-examine failure.

Monday, September 28, 2009

China migrant workers return to cities as crisis eases

BEIJING - Nearly all the migrant Chinese workers laid off last year during the global economic crisis have returned to jobs in the cities due to an improvement in the employment situation, an official said on Saturday.

'Currently, 96 per cent rural workers who went back to the countryside have already returned to the cities to work or do business,' vice agriculture minister Chen Xiaohua told reporters, stressing that 'with the stabilisation and revival of the economy, employment of migrant workers has improved'.

'In certain places, there are even problems of a lack of workers,' he added.
'According to our investigations, at the end of the second quarter the numbers of rural workers departing for the cities increased by 2.6 per cent compared to the first quarter,' Mr Chen said.

By the latest estimate, China had 225 million migrant workers.

At the start of the year, nearly 20 million of them were laid off because of factory closures due to the slump in exports amid the global economic downturn.

The Chinese authorities try to curb unemployment to avoid any social tensions which could degenerate into political unrest. -- AFP

My recent trip to China can confirm this. Guangzhou area, the factory of the world, is short of staffs. Many people complains difficult to find staffs because they left for other areas working for infrastructure projects.

Despite of 3 days down in a row for the US markets, I posted three good news in a row. Can we buy on dips, I certainly willl put some money to work when it dips between 10-19%(S&P 1068 as a reference point)

Sunday, September 27, 2009

US housing checked out from ICU?

Posted cyclical semiconductor industry recovery yesterday. Found another interesting chart in my mail box. The US housing price seems to have bottomed out. You can see the price snapped back sharply.

Saturday, September 26, 2009

Semiconductor industry recovery signals brigther tomorrow?

Semiconductor is a very cyclical industry. This is one of the important indicators to watch as it is a general reflection of the world economy(ipod, TV, computer, handphone etc). Book-to-bill ratio is a number that can tell us whether booking is stronger than products shipped, ratio more than 1 is telling us shipment is lagging behind booking.

Something really caught my attention, book-to-bill greater than 1 since July '09 and Aug '09, first time above 1 since 2005. Wow! almost 4 years ago which seems like an eternity to many.

While worldwide semiconductor sales are still in the contraction mode but recovering rapidly, signalling better days ahead. So is worldwide economy.

Tuesday, September 22, 2009

Interesting discovery of Taiwan market

I was reading one of the research reports citing Taiwan stock market is one of the Asian's most overvalued markets, selling above 60 times PE. To my surprise, it has been able to keep its head above 7,000 points and many are still cheering 10,000, 10,000, 10,000 points........ I should have knew that Asian stock markets are some sort of casinos anyway. My friend told me that recent Taiwan government tax cuts successfully lures billion of dollar back to Taiwan. When money is flowing, stock and property markets surely are the regular inlets of gambling. Don't get me wrong, it will end with tears, but the point is --- sometimes, fundamentalist will be boxed in a corner seeing other people laughing, partying making easy money but giving in at the wrong time will earn you a crown: the Idiot of the Universe.

TAIPEI, Taiwan -- Taiwanese are repatriating money at an unprecedented rate after the government lowered the inheritance tax and ties with mainland China improved, boosting stocks, bourse Chairman Schive Chi said.

Citizens brought home US$6.7 billion in the second quarter in addition to US$9.9 billion in the first quarter this year and US$10.6 billion in the fourth quarter last year, the Taiwan Stock Exchange's Schive said, citing information from the central bank.

This has “never happened before,” he told Bloomberg Television in an interview yesterday. “You can see several very promising developments.”

Monday, September 21, 2009

Frustrated by Chinese government

I was pretty much anticipated that I won't be able to blog from China. I thought I can beat the rule by going through anonymizer. I went through no less than 20 programs but without much luck. So much for the personal freedom. I could not believe that I could not access to China Financial Markets @ from China. I began to feel very eerie try not to get cute thinking of subscribing to paid hosting company to have personal website. I can bet 1-100, personal website can be blocked for no apparent reason in no time. Or you may find out one day your favorite web hosting company no longer able to host for you.

Guess what, if you are in Southern China, the best way is get the hell out of China. Make a trip to Hong Kong and buy yourself a nice cup of coffee in Starbuck and blog like hell. Suddenly, you feel your cup of coffee in Starbuck worth a lot more, satisfaction is beyond description, priceless ....... by Mastercard. Selamat Hari Raya.

Thursday, September 17, 2009

Interesting insiders trade

There are four insiders have been accumulating YNH Property aggressively -

(i) Yu Kuan Chon(Chairman of company)31.19% interest
(ii) Credit Suisse Group from almost nothing to 10.18% interest
(iii) Aberdeen Asset Management Asia limited (7.32%)
(iv) Lembaga Tabung Haji (6.10%)

We can be very suspicious if Credit Suisse writing a report and promoting stock without much commitment. With them risking real money of RM 70 mln is something may will certainly get my attention.

Aberdeen Asset who is managing money for institutions with strong bottom up stock picking approach is another hint that I should look something closer.

YNH Property in a nutshell is in property development with exposure to township development in Manjung and niche high end residential projects. Name like Mont' Kiara probably very familiar to you. I really like their locations. This is what I found from their annual report.

Despite the weak economic conditions in 2008, the Company's strong on-going projects such as Lot 163 Suites (Kuala Lumpur city centre), Ceriaan Kiara (Mont Kiara, Kuala Lumpur), Taman Singa Baru, Taman Sejati and Taman Manjung Baru and Manjung Point Seksyen II continue to contribute positively to the Group's income. As such, the Board is cautiously optimistic of the Group's prospect for the subsequent financial year.

YNHPB had on 5 March 2009 entered into a second agreement with Frasers Hospitality Pte Ltd to manage the Gold-Standard serviced residences, Fraser Residence Kuala Lumpur located at PT No. 6, Seksyen 44, situated along Jalan Sultan Ismail, Kuala Lumpur.

Fraser Residence Kuala Lumpur is part of a mixed development project comprising serviced residences, office suites and also retail mall with a total gross development value of approximately RM550 million. Fraser Residence Kuala
Lumpur will be constructed on a piece of land facing both Jalan Ampang and Jalan Sultan Ismail. Key features includes a two towers with one and two-bedroom serviced apartments, a sky gymnasium, infinity lap pool, whirl pool and sauna and is cheduled to contribute positively to the Group’s income for the next five years.

Another proposed iconic future development by YNHPB is the Menara YNH, which is located besides Shangri-la Hotel, along Jalan Sultan Ismail, Kuala Lumpur. Menara YNH, has one of the most exclusive business addresses in Kuala Lumpur city centre, the Jalan Sultan Ismail, where most prestigious 5 star hotels and upmarket office spaces are located. The commercial development sits on a 130,826 sq ft approximately 3 acres) of land with a wide frontage of 320 feet along Jalan Sultan Ismail. The iconic Menara YNH is one of the few international “Grade A” office building
will have a luxurious retail podium and two office wings which will be equipped with energy-saving features.

Subsequent to FY 2008, YNHPB achieved further sales during soft launching for Menara YNH commercial office and retail podium of approximately RM300 million, which will add on to the existing proposed RM926 million sales to KFH based on their offer to purchase 50% of the total office space. Negotiation with KFH is progressing well and
formalization of a Sales and Purchase Agreement is expected to be completed within one year. Menara YNH is expected to contribute positively to the Group’s earnings for the next eight years.

YNHPB had on 19 February 2009 entered into a Memorandum of Understanding with Pantai Holdings Bhd to build and lease a private hospital in the Manjung Point township development located in Seri Manjung, Perak. The Pantai Seri Manjung Hospital will add value and provide first class medical facilities and services in our existing and future developments in the Manjung Point Township in Seri Manjung, Perak.

The Group has also acquired 95 acres of development land in Genting Highland in 2008. The land is located strategically next to the Genting Highland Resort and was acquired for RM16.05 million. This is a relatively low price as some infrastructure is already in place. In addition to that, the land is freehold and has been onverted to building title. The cool weather and easy access (forty-five minutes by highway from KL city centre) will make this an attractive development. The proposed development comprises of commercial, retail, condominium, bungalows etc. The estimated gross development value is RM 1.96 billion, which is expected to ontribute to the Group’s earnings in the next 20 years.

Lastly, the Group's township development in Seri Manjung (near Lumut Navy Town and Pangkor Island) of approximately 1,000 acres will continue to contribute to the Group's profit for the next 20 to 30 years.

The board[ing] announcement has commenced, got to run........Sept 13,09 Penang.

Saturday, September 12, 2009

Can insiders be right?

Can insiders be right? As the market rebounded, they are selling like there's no tommorrow? Is this a precursor of a big decline later on? Insiders already disposed half of what they bought, how come? Three possibilities:

1) insiders are lying -- raise guidance but they know they are not going to meet it.

2) insiders think the recovery is not sustainable, valuation will be extremely over-stretch

3) taking some money off the table

I don't have answer except will be a lot more cautious when S&P is approaching 1,150-1,250 later.

I'll be in China for 2-3 weeks, I've tried some of the reader suggestions to blog from China but was not working. Would appreciate if any of you can let me know more walk-around solutions. See you next month if I still could not get around this problem from China.

Wednesday, September 9, 2009

Genting falls on Genting S'pore rights share plan ... really?!!

Genting share already corrected since 8 Sept when it hits the top resistance channel. Is the market efficient to price in this news of Genting Singapore plans for rights issue or purely a correction? The Edge Malaysia is surely wrong saying price dropped due to Genting Singapore rights issue when correction kicked in yesterday.

The share is about 46% above its 200-SMA which is one heck of bullish. From trading perspective, I will wait for next 9 - 14 days(see chart below on the basis) to let the overbought situation to neutralize first. Any sign of rebound from lower resistance channel will be a good trade set up - around RM 6.30.

(TheEdgeMalaysia)KUALA LUMPUR: GENTING BHD []'s share price fell the most in more than a month during afternoon trade on Sept 9 after Genting Singapore announced its rights issue to raise S$1.63 billion at 80 cents each or 32.8% below the previous day's closing price.

It closed 30 sen lower at RM6.87, the most since July 29. There were 16.4 million shares done.

Genting Singapore's proposed rights issue involves up to 2.04 billion new shares of 80 cents each and it would be on the basis of one rights shares for every five held.

"The rights issue is expected to raise gross proceeds of up to S$1.63 billion and is undertaken to pro-actively strengthen the balance sheet of the company and its subsidiaries (the group), enhance its financial flexibility and competitive position and facilitate future business expansion," Genting Singapore said in a statement to the Singapore exchange.

Genting Singapore, which is about 54% held by Genting Bhd, is building one of the city-state's two integrated casino resorts. It is also the largest casino operator in the UK.

Genting Singapore will resume trading on Thursday, Sept 10.

Why would someone sells Genting Malaysia from fundamental point of views?

  • Genting Singapore rights exercise is diluting earnings.

  • Genting Malaysia got no chance to get rid of their non-core or non-gaming assets(power assets, plantation, O&G and etc)

Fundamentalist will definitely lose out in this round of tug of war. Trader will be in control of this battle, RM 6.00 - RM 6.30 will attract vultures again. Cracking below this level, you can expect it to go back all the way to RM 4.75 - RM 5.00.

Good luck on your trade set-up if trade you must -- and don't forget your cut loss target.

Tuesday, September 8, 2009

Let there be ............................... liquidity

About two weeks back, I heard someone came on TV mentioned that this recovery will look like an Internet address ......... W W W. That was the most interesting shape that I came across. Now that the authority is committing to ensure stimulus will not be unwind, the market will be flushed with liquidity, some of it will continue to flow into financial assets. Internet address recovery seems to very interesting to me. I believe the most scientific and sophisticated way of researching stock markets from now on is to go to wet market or take taxi to find out whether they will me any stock tips. When that happens, then I know the end is near. More importantly I look like a super-idiot when I sell something and people start to curse me because it goes up a lot higher before bungee jump kicks in.

BRUSSELS, Sept 2 (Reuters) - G20 countries have agreed it is too soon to withdraw measures to end the global economic crisis and will discuss coordinating policy to wind up the trillions of dollars in support at talks in London this week.

European finance ministers meeting in Brussels said the worst of the recession was over in the 16 countries that use the euro currency but ruled out an immediate end to the fiscal and monetary help.

Monday, September 7, 2009

Turtle Portfolio Record Updates

Just doing some records housekeeping added in last Friday Bumi-Commerce purchased.

Sunday, September 6, 2009

The Study of FBM-KLCI 200d-SMA

200-day Simple Moving Average(SMA) is an important number to look at. When the index surges way above 200-SMA is an indication of the sentiments are way too bullish or plunges way below it telling us "blood is on the street".

If you look at the chart, periods A and D were very strong bull run after years of consolidations while C was recovery period after extreme sold down.

Periods B & E were at the extreme bearish territory when the index plunged way below its historical 200-SMA(30-40%). For other normal times, index should continue to rest slightly on or above its 200-SMA. Here are some of the statistics that I extracted from the yahoo. Please note that this is only a very rough guide since I am lack of sophisticated tool to extract information like this.

We are about 20% above 200d-SMA now and slightly above historical average of 18%. If we are repeating the recovery of 1997/1998 financial crisis, the rebound could be very sharp after a series of corrections(more than 10% pull back). It can go up way above average and as high as 44%.

If sharp pull back is not materialize, then sideway move to take heat out of the system will be quite probable.

I will assign a very small probability of the market can go below 200-SMA at this juncture since we have quite a good earnings season. Analysts were playing catch up gaming -- busy upgrading. Look at these two charts. The expectation is 15% earnings growth for 2010.

Friday, September 4, 2009

Why Bumiputra-Commerce Bank Turtle?

I was like others, a skeptic of Nazir's leadership to lead Bumi-Commerce especially he is linked to Najib. Also no thanks to old legacy of Bumiputra Malaysia Finance name proximity tainted with infamous cowboy management and scandals during the 80s. So, I was very skeptical when Nazir acquired Southern Bank and doubted he can integrate Southern Bank acquisition successfully. I was expecting folks in Southern Bank to leave due to clashes of cultures. Believe it or not, I begin to pay more attentions as he successfully integrated that acquisition and turnaround the consumer banking sector. He went a few more steps ahead with his regional aspirations. He integrated a few more acquisitions like CIMB-GK(Singapore stock broking), Niaga-Lippo(Indonesian 5th largest bank) and now trying to turnaround his Thailand banking operation.

If you look at his senior management team, it's full of diversity(Ang-mo, Japanese, Malaysian(Malay, Chinese, Indian), Singaporean, Indonesian, Thai, etc). Most of them are very young (late thirties or early forties). With whole bunch of new blood, a good bet that they can transform the organization to be more innovative, competitive, performance-based(meritocracy) and adaptive to changes.

Now the catalysts.

Catalyst #1: Improving capital market. There is no doubt that you can see very clearly that 63% of the profit contributions are coming from investment banking and treasury. If we are still in 2008, this will certainly makes a lot of people feel jitters. However, the picture is changing as the capital markets are improving. Good chance of double digit growth in this segment in 2010.

Catalyst #2: Banking on economic recovery. Domestic loan growth has been robust, CIMB came in #2 after Public Bank. 9% ytd growth is quite impressive despite of dire situation in the first quarter. Good chance of 12-13% loan growth in 2010.

Catalyst #3: Contribution from CIMB Niaga-Lippo as Indonesia has been experience robust economic growth. Indonesia definitely it's under-penetrated market. With their workforce of close to 12,000. CIMB Niaga is contributing about 19% in Q2 '09 to the group's profit, in 5 years time, CIMB expects this Indonesian unit contribution to the group to be as high as 42%. You should be able to figure out what is that growth rate going to be.

Catalyst #4: Operations improvement(asset quality, cost/income, etc) plus income expansion will lead to higher profitability i.e. ROE 14-15%. Nazir mentioned in his 2008 annual report that he is driving towards 18% ROE over the medium term.

Consensus net profit for 2009 and 2010 is RM 2.3 billion and RM 2.75 billion. This will translate to EPS 0.64 and 0.75 based on outstanding shares of 3,578 mln. Personally, I feel the consensus number has been on the conservative side, they will play the catch-up game later. I feel the earning will be around 0.85 for 2010. At RM 10.24, we are pricing in for 12 times earning for 2010. Earnings surprise plus better sentiments will be able to sell the story to price in 2010 earning as we are almost getting through 3/4 of 2009 already. At 15 times earning, somebody will be willing to pay for RM 12.75, this is my basis of my price target of RM 12.5 - RM 13.0. A lot of CIMB initiatives plus confidence building will take another 2-3 years to flow in, that's why I will buy and sell based on market sentiments now and then.

A bit of diversion as I am trying to wrap up things, if Nazir can successfully leading the team to deliver first class performance(benchmarking Public Bank), this should be a role model that a multi-racial society can put aside religion, race, privilege to compete based on merits, to suceed in the era of globalization. And his brother will have to learn a few tricks from him.

Turtle bought Bumiputra-Commerce - 300 shares @ RM 10.24

Turtle bought Bumiputra-Commerce - 300 shares @ RM 10.24, recycling from previous money from Tanjong liquidation. This is more of a trading buy with a target price of RM 12.5 to RM 13.0. While both stocks(Bumiputra-Commerce and Tanjong) are certainly rock solid at this point of time, very suitable for buy and hold but I can also do short term trading. I plan to rotate about 15% of my capital on blue chips when the market is moving side way. Hopefully this approach will enhance my return. One thing I must be prepared, the stock price could go a lot higher when I exited them. It can cause me to kick my butt(look like a complete idiot, grrrrrrrrr). This is the switching risk that I have to deal with it.

I'm testing a strategy of 70% buy and hold, 15% on short-term blue chip trading and 15% cash as dry powder in case of good opportunity shows up.

I feel trading blue chips with strong fundamentals will allow me to sleep soundly at night. In case the share price drop, I still can hold on to it knowing business will continue to improve over time and I still make money, albeit lesser money due to wrong entry timing. I prefer not to execute "momentum stocks" trading strategy for Turtle portfolio.

The reasons of the pick will be published over the weekend.

Thursday, September 3, 2009

Betting against the house - Genting ?

The market has been very volatile and driven a lot by newsflows. Since it has been a while I did not talk any stock specific, I am going to do it for fun today.
(TheEdgeMalaysia)SINGAPORE: Genting Singapore plc, which is building one of two casinos in the island nation, surged to a record on Sept 3 on speculation its S$6.6 billion (RM16.2 billion) resort casino in the city-state will open ahead of schedule.
The stock surged 9.3% to S$1.17. It recently traded 7.5% higher at S$1.15, set for its highest close since listing in September 1991.

“It’s possible for the resort casino to open by the end of the year,” CLSA Asia Pacific Markets analyst Aaron Fischer said in a telephone interview.

The project is still scheduled to open in early 2010, according Robin Goh, spokesman at Resorts World, the Genting Singapore unit building the casino.

Fischer wrote in a note dated Sept 1 that Genting Singapore could be worth as much as S$3 based on the city-state’s potential gaming revenue of between US$3.2 billion (RM11.3 billion) and US$4.7 billion once the two casinos open next year. That compares with Macau’s US$14 billion gaming revenue.
By the time The Edge published this around 2 pm, the Genting stock price already selling for RM6.74. The stock price closed at RM 6.81 for the day, you make 1% assuming you bought when the second session opened. Should you be happy? What I am alluding is the big boys already bought ahead. CIMB research released a report with a target price of RM 9.30 yesterday and they disclosed that they have position in this stock. So can you still make money?

Gaming stocks will typically run up about 1.5 - 2 months before the opening. Deutsche Bank did a price study recently. They found out Melco International, LVS Ventian Macau, Galaxy-Starworld and Wynn Macau share price went up 93%, 34%, 21% and 27% respectively 1.5 month before the opening. Genting price already went up more than 70% from the low, surely this will complicate things by applying the same formula. Taking out Melco as an anomaly, assuming the share price can run up from RM 6.00 from the most recent correction, 25 - 30% further rise will take you to RM 7.5 - RM 7.8. So I believe CIMB is over-stretching their target.

To take biasness out, let me pull out an older research report. Goldman Sachs released a research note to their clients on July 31, 09 with an impressive workout Singapore gaming market size potential of US $ 3 billion. They assinged a very conservative target of RM 6.60 even though they are aware of such big potential. They reckon the potential earning downside in Genting are cannibalization and poor showing from non-gaming sector.

If gamble you must, be sure you know who are betting against you.Good luck!

Disclosure : None

Wednesday, September 2, 2009

Fully discounted the economy recovery?

Has the recent price ran up discounted all the economy recovery? The US markets closed 2% down overnight despite of quite a number of good news being announced on the same day:

1. The American manufacturing expanded

Sept. 1 (Bloomberg) -- American manufacturing expanded for the first time in 19 months, and pending sales of existing homes rose more than forecast, indicating the worst recession since the 1930s has ended.

The Institute of Supply Management’s factory index posted its biggest two-month gain since 83, rising to 52.9 in August; readings higher than 50 signal an expansion. The National Association of Realtors said signed purchase agreements for existing properties jumped 3.2 percent in July, for record sixth consecutive gain.

2. Pending sales of existing home rose in July, six in a row

Sept. 1 (Bloomberg) -- The number of contracts to buy previously owned homes rose more than forecast in July and increased for a record sixth consecutive month, reinforcing signs that the housing market is steadying.

The index of signed purchase agreements, or pending home sales, gained 3.2 percent after a 3.6 percent rise in June, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. The index level of 97.6 was the highest since June 2007. Compared with July 2008, pending sales climbed 13 percent.

3. U.S. Auto-Sales rate may be highest since April 2008

Aug. 31 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. auto sales in August probably will run at the highest rate since April 2008 after the federal government’s “cash for clunkers” rebates fueled demand. The so-called seasonally adjusted annual rate for this month will be 14.3 million, the average estimate of 10 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

The figure, an industry benchmark, hadn’t exceeded 10 million in 2009 until the incentive program began in July. Ford Motor Co. may post the biggest monthly sales gain.

4. China Manufacturing Grows at Fastest Pace Since 2008

Sept. 1 (Bloomberg) -- China’s manufacturing expanded at the fastest pace in 16 months in August, driven by record lending in the first half of the year, two surveys showed.

The Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to a seasonally adjusted 54 from 53.3 in July, the Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said in an e-mailed statement today in Beijing. A PMI released by HSBC Holdings Plc also climbed.

With so many good news being announced including a number of European countries were out of recession and yet markets tumbled, the market is in search of reasons. The inconvenience truth was, a-ha --- banking sector is in trouble again. KBW Bank Index fell 5.8%.

My take is everyone is anticipating September to be a very weak month, so they just took profit off the table. There will be some chaos but I think correction is quite normal in my view, of which I have been waiting patiently since 2 - 3 weeks ago.