Earning, earning, earning

Welcome to earning recessions.

(WSJ)TOKYO -- Toyota Motor Corp. on Thursday reported a 69% drop in net profit for the fiscal second quarter and slashed its fiscal-year forecast by more than half, projecting that its net profit will fall to its lowest level since 1999 as a steep decline in U.S. sales and the global financial crisis battered earnings.

Toyota is suddenly forced to cut its temporary workforce in Japan, scale back production and sales forecast and re-evaluate its future plans to trim costs and shore up profits as it prepares for at least another 12 months of slow sales.

Analysts need to sharpen their pencils - Estimates are still too rosy.

Earnings for the 956 companies in western Europe that reported results since Oct. 7 declined 6.7 percent on average, trailing expectations by 5.4 percent, Bloomberg data show. Profits for the 392 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported, including Boeing Co. and AT&T Inc., have shrunk 7.2 percent, while beating predictions by 1.6 percent, the data show.

Companies in the S&P 500 Index may see fourth-quarter earnings advance 15 percent, down from 42 percent projected at the end of August, according to a Bloomberg survey of analysts' estimates. Profits in 2009 may grow 13 percent, analysts say now, compared with the 24 percent predicted two months ago.

Saw headline of mass firing - 12,000 to be axed.

Nov. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc., faced with a weakening economy and the prospect of mounting losses, began firing workers as part of the firms' plans to cut more than 12,000 jobs, people with knowledge of the matter said.

Goldman, which converted last month from the biggest U.S. securities firm into a commercial bank, yesterday began telling about 3,200 employees, or 10 percent of its workforce, they were out of a job, according to one of the people who declined to be identified because the decisions were confidential.

Citigroup has been notifying staff this week who are affected by the bank's plan to discard 9,100 positions over the next 12 months, or about 2.6 percent of its headcount, another person said.

Since market will typically bottom out 6 - 9 months before a recession is confirm, finding the bottom can be tricky. It is also very tricky to confirm a low is the final low before bouncing back. Like golfer, we always wish to have hole in one. Keep trying, keep wishing you will get lucky one day. All the best.