Saturday, January 10, 2009

Yeah.....it's that job report

Yeah, the day before the job report was released, there was a gloom and doom about the job losses will go up all the way to 700,000 in December, well it came within expectations, 500 k plus.

Jan. 9 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. lost more jobs in 2008 than in any year since 1945 as employers fired another 524,000 people in December, indicating a free-fall in the economy just days before President-elect Barack Obama takes office.

“Consumers are now going to get more and more scared at the prospect of losing their job,” said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts. Obama’s proposed fiscal stimulus “needs to be big, needs to be bold, needs to be swift. If they can do something quickly we can limit the hemorrhage by mid-year.”


Well what does that means? Will risk appetite continue? Currency traders think so. I am assigning much higher probability January/Chinese New Year effects before corrections come in.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.76 as nearly 64% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.42 as 59% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 16.5% higher than yesterday and 49.7% stronger since last week. Short positions are 6.1% lower than yesterday and 11.9% weaker since last week. Open interest is 7.2% stronger than yesterday and 118.4% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.


See you all next Monday or Tuesday.

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