Sunday, May 13, 2012

Market Updates: China, US and sentiments

China slow down is more evident

From the WSJ
  • China's economy slowed sharply in April—from industrial output to bank lending to foreign trade.
  • Bank of America's China economist cuts second quarter forecast on Friday to 7.6%, year-over-year, from 8.5%
  •  Nomura research. "The economy has now slowed down so much that there will be a consensus to promote growth."

If 2012 is a year of slowdown despite of 40 elections going on around the world, I think Jim Rogers is right that 2013 will be a year that we need to be very concerned. I've seen plenty of this kind of forecast by the strategists that think 2013 will be stronger than 2012. 

I think this is just not possible. It will be difficult for the US to achieve higher than 2% growth and the EU might be still in recession, finally China growth can be below 8%.

The ECRI re-affirms the US will tip into a recession but a mild one

From the ECRI: Has personal income growth ever remained this low for three months without the economy going into recession? The answer is no.

Individual investors are not stupid !

From the bespoke. American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) bullishness drop as the S & P 500 goes up. They seem to got it right last year. I think they finally gotten smarter after being screwed by the big boys badly.

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