Monday, February 4, 2013

13th General Election

At this point of time, I believe the level of retail participations in the stock market is quite low. What it means is this -- many would have sold down their holding. The general strategy is to sell down their stake and buy them back after 13th General Election. Not surprisingly many local funds including EPF have been selling down their holding even though the general consensus is expecting BN to hold on to their power but with reduced parliament seats.  Let's run the numbers based on 2008 GE results.



In the 2008 GE, BN captured 140 out of 222 parliament seats. If Opposition component needs to capture Putrajaya this time, it will need to capture at least 112 seats. Based on 2008 GE results, assuming our opposition party does not lose any of 82 seats, they will need to get another 30 seats. As you can see from the table, our opposition capture very high % of the seat in Kedah, Kelantan, Penang, Wilayah Persekutuan - Kuala Lumpur and Selangor. In business lingo, they have very high market share. 

To win another 30 seats, they will have to capture additional market share in Johor, Sabah or Sarawak. These 3 states have a tally of 82 seats or 37% of total available seats. For BN to lose 30 seats mean they are losing almost 37% of their support.

I was surprised with Najib allowing himpunan hijau recently. I was equally surprised with him saying ok with RCI on project IC. When I look at the tally again, I should not be surprised after all. Najib has nothing to lose because BN already lost. Allowing opposition doing more in high penetration states do not equal to more seats.

We should not underestimate Najib though he appears to be a weakling. Allowing RCI on project IC is fine.  The real question is, can we reverse the citizenship that was granted? Without the reversal, can opposition swing the votes, especially the "aliens" outnumber the local? Many of them feel indebted and also tasted the bantuan rakyat 1 Malaysia?

I have been scratching my head why the hell Najib wants to spend time and resources in Penang. Bringing in Psy to perform Oppa Ganggam style in the coming Chinese New Year may appear to be weak or a sign running out of substance. On a second thought, he may not be that stupid after all, his offensive strategy may distract our opposition to guard on what they have and spend less time in area that can contribute another 30 seats. Our opposition should have organized the himpunan hijau in Johor, Sabah or Sarawak to shock the local. 

This post by no means to discourage anybody who wish for a change but to confront the realities. We need to be on our toes all the times and not to fall into the trap of BN. We only get this one shot to change our Malaysia destiny forever. Let's do it right.

See you all after the GE. 

Keong He Fatt Chai!

4 comments:

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Kris said...

Feigned in the west, attack on the east?

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