Friday, September 6, 2013

The Greed of Man - Final part

Do we sometimes wish that we have supernatural power when comes to speculating or investing. Do we wish we can fly? 

Do we wish we can see the closing price printed in tomorrow's newspaper? Above all, do we wish we can be god? Can we make things happen by having strong self belief. In the final battle between Ar-Bok and Ting Hai, he was very confident that that stock market will go up despite of all the evidences pointed to American will hit Iraq, hence down is the path of the least resistance. He said if you have strong enough convictions, you can make things happen. If you keep thinking of getting an Ace, you will get an Ace. That is the power of self fulfillment prophecy. This what a NLP program will teach you. If you keep thinking of something and repeat the same thoughts over and over again million of times, thoughts will transform into actions ultimately making dreams come true.

Relying on self belief, astrology or seeing magicians  are not uncommon especially among Asian investors or speculators. A research house like CLSA, suppose to be an intellectual powerhouse, has been publishing a slideruler to guide many of its customer especially in Hong Kong who believe very strongly in Feng Shui to make many money decisions. The below chart was published around Chinese New Year. How accurate is this call?

At one glance, it is seems to be very accurate. If we feel the market is pretty shitty now thus our minds and eyes are easy to be deceived. When we compare the actual results, it is seems to be completely opposite. CSLA said Hang Seng Index supposed to rally all the way to July and enter correction phase until end of September. The opposite seems to be happening. The market rally fizzled out in January and has been sliding and bottomed out in June and now is going up.

So do you still believe in market wizards? Many do, after all, Warren Buffet will not be called as god of stocks.

The story continues, Ar-Bok defeated Ting Hai simply not because he has strong self belief. No doubt he believed his wife could brought him luck and inspirations. No doubt he believed he has some six sense but above all, he understood the power of liquidity. In his term, he called it "borrowing lucks".

Prior to market collapsed, Fong Chun Sang helped some very righteous businessmen who refused to bribe to get their company listed. One of them believe to be "Li Ka Shing" who had a concrete plan of what to do with his business. He had done tremendous home works to acquire companies on cheap if these companies collapsed when the bubble pricked. He had visions of how a port can turned into luxury properties in the future.

Many years later Ar-Bok's father after passed away, he thought these businessmen can help him as a favor of Ar-Bok's father had done. He presented three halves HKD 500 that represent a gentleman agreement for favor repayment.

Ar Bok requested these three richest men in Hong Kong to help him to buy stock when stock market opened on Monday. The powerful liquidity would surely flushed out short sellers.

The promised was fulfilled. Hang Seng index broke above 10,000 for the first time. In reality, 1992 actual Hang Seng index was at around 4300. The script writer over exaggerated the number by doubling it yet we took 11,210 as absolute truth because it is so familiar to us.

The drama ended with bitter sweet when Ar Mui died in the arm of Ar Bok's arms peacefully. She seems to be perfectly happy as she thought all her dreams had been fulfilled. How a person feel with not so happy ending tells a lot about a person. It tells a lot whether a person can accept imperfection is just part of this world. We can't have everything going our way, it's just unrealistic. Though we may feel a little sober for a few hours thinking of the satisfying ending(not perfect ending) but we just got to move on.................

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