May 28 (Bloomberg) -- OPEC is likely to leave production quotas unchanged at today’s meeting in Vienna in a bet that demand will recover, pushing prices as high as $75 a barrel by year’s end, ministers said.
Officials from five of the 12 members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said before the start of today’s closed-door assembly they supported leaving output targets unchanged, as the group did at its last conference in March. They will push instead for better compliance with targets set late last year.
“We should not make it more difficult for the world economy,” Shokri Ghanem, chairman of Libya’s National Oil Corp., said today in Vienna. OPEC is therefore unlikely to opt for more cutbacks, even as it sees “a lot of overhang in the market.”
"As iron sharpens iron, so one man sharpens another." (Proverbs 27:17)
When iron is sharpened by coming into contact with more iron, sparks fly. But just because sparks are in evidence, we cannot assume that iron is being sharpened. The iron could just as easily suffer damage from an inexperienced hand. It takes a skilled hand to sharpen iron without destroying it.
As more critiques are being created by people outside of what has been called "the emerging church" (which would include EmergentVillage but is not limited to it -- as I'm sure the folks at EV would agree), the necessity of discerning the difference between a good critique and a poor one is heightened.
Recognizing that I'm only scratching the surface on this topic, I'd like to offer a few suggestions on how to tell a good critique from a poor one:
1. A good critique starts with understanding thoroughly the subject matter being critiqued. If we're going to critique something, it should be assumed that we'd do our homework and be knowledgable about what we're critiquing. There is very little to be gained from a critique that is based on sloppy, slanted, or inadequate research.
A good critique will be conversant with primary sources, not relying on other critiques as their basis.
2. There are two kinds of questions people ask when confronted with something that they aren't sure about:
Questions that are looking for information -- seeking to understand.
Questions that are looking for ammunition -- seeking rant-fodder.
A good critique will be evidenced by questions that are seeking understanding.
3. The use of the "false dichotomy" is a sign of a bad critique. A false dichotomy is an exaggerated either/or scenario, where people are given only two diametrically opposed options to choose from. The example I used in Clique Maintenance Part 2 (Next-Wave May 2003) was the false dichotomy created by proponents of the "courtship" approach to dating: you either accepted courtship principles (which aren't bad, by the way) or your only other option was mindless sexual promiscuity.
So in terms of the emerging church discussion, when we're given the two options of being (a) emerging or (b) Biblical -- it's a false dichotomy. The two need not be mutually exclusive. The use of the false dichotomy is actually quite manipulative, and should be avoided.
4. A good critique follows the spirit of Matthew 18:15-17. The broader theme of Jesus' teaching here is that we're dealing with family members, not enemies (cf. Galatians 6:1). A good critique reads like a letter from an old friend who is concerned about us. It's the attitude of a trusted friend sitting across the table from us in a coffeeshop or pub, and loving us enough to ask the tough questions, and listen to what's on our hearts.
5. A good critique is capable of seeing the good as well as sounding the alarm about potential problems. By acknowledging the positive aspects of the emerging church -- or at a minimum, acknowledging the validity of the questions being raised by the emerging church -- critics would find a more receptive audience of needed insights into our shortcomings.
"Wounds from a friend can be trusted..." (Proverbs 27:6).
A good critique may sting at times -- we're all aware that we see through a glass darkly -- but if the underlying attitude is one of redemptive friendship, a good critique will sharpen the emerging church.
And we'd welcome it.
May 21 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve officials, who see possible signs of “stabilization” in the U.S. economy, signaled they’re not convinced those improvements will persist.
Policy makers, meeting April 28-29 in Washington, saw “significant downside risks” to the outlook for the economy, with the global financial system still “vulnerable to further shocks,” minutes of the session released yesterday said.
The report indicates that Fed officials may be ready to build on their plan in March to buy $300 billion of Treasuries should the economy or financial markets deteriorate further. Some policy makers said an increase “might well be warranted at some point to spur a more rapid pace of recovery” from the worst recession in five decades, the minutes showed.
“They are talking about keeping an option open in case things get worse for some reason,” said John Silvia, chief economist at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina, who previously worked as a senior economist in Congress. “But if the economy improves, they don’t need to do any more.”
THE 19th century was dominated by the British Empire, the 20th century by the United States. We may now be entering the Asian century, dominated by a rising China and its currency. While the dollar’s status as the major reserve currency will not vanish overnight, we can no longer take it for granted. Sooner than we think, the dollar may be challenged by other currencies, most likely the Chinese renminbi. This would have serious costs for America, as our ability to finance our budget and trade deficits cheaply would disappear.
Traditionally, empires that hold the global reserve currency are also net foreign creditors and net lenders. The British Empire declined — and the pound lost its status as the main global reserve currency — when Britain became a net debtor and a net borrower in World War II. Today, the United States is in a similar position. It is running huge budget and trade deficits, and is relying on the kindness of restless foreign creditors who are starting to feel uneasy about accumulating even more dollar assets. The resulting downfall of the dollar may be only a matter of time.
But what could replace it? The British pound, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc remain minor reserve currencies, as those countries are not major powers. Gold is still a barbaric relic whose value rises only when inflation is high. The euro is hobbled by concerns about the long-term viability of the European Monetary Union. That leaves the renminbi.
China is a creditor country with large current account surpluses, a small budget deficit, much lower public debt as a share of G.D.P. than the United States, and solid growth. And it is already taking steps toward challenging the supremacy of the dollar. Beijing has called for a new international reserve currency in the form of the International Monetary Fund’s special drawing rights (a basket of dollars, euros, pounds and yen). China will soon want to see its own currency included in the basket, as well as the renminbi used as a means of payment in bilateral trade.
At the moment, though, the renminbi is far from ready to achieve reserve currency status. China would first have to ease restrictions on money entering and leaving the country, make its currency fully convertible for such transactions, continue its domestic financial reforms and make its bond markets more liquid. It would take a long time for the renminbi to become a reserve currency, but it could happen. China has already flexed its muscle by setting up currency swaps with several countries (including Argentina, Belarus and Indonesia) and by letting institutions in Hong Kong issue bonds denominated in renminbi, a first step toward creating a deep domestic and international market for its currency.
(TheEdge)KUALA LUMPUR: The Securities Commission (SC) has approved one Chinese company for listing on the Bursa Malaysia, making it possibly the country’s first foreign listing.
SC chairman Datuk Zarinah Anwar said on May 8 the regulator was also looking at a proposal by another Chinese company while it had also received several inquiries from other countries.
(The Star)SQUEAKY-CLEAN Singapore seems an unlikely place for serial financial scandals to occur.http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2009/3/16/business/3480329&sec=business
That has occurred because it is a location for stock exchange listings of companies with operations mainly in China. These China stocks in Singapore are called S-chips. In some cases, S-chips have seen extreme volatility in their share prices amid suspicion of impropriety.
In other cases, shocks of misdemeanour has occurred, with the latest striking Raffles Education Corp Ltd, which is listed on the Singapore Exchange (SGX).
This ricocheted from its associate company, Oriental Century Ltd, an S-chip listed on Singapore’s Catalist market that had replaced the Sesdaq. Raffles Education is the single biggest shareholder of Oriental Century which operates private schools in China.
It’s strangely reminiscent of India’s Satyam scandal in which its chairman confessed to having inflated the company’s cash balances, and other irregularities.
Oriental Century said in a statement to Catalist on Thursday that its executive chairman and chief executive officer Wang Yuean informed the board that cash balances of 234 million yuan (RM126mil), reportedly on the balance sheet as at Dec 31, were “substantially inflated.” Over the years, Wang had diverted unspecified sums to an interested party.
Interestingly, the auditors, KPMG, had informed Oriental Century’s chief financial officer (CFO) on Monday that it had difficulties reconfirming the bank balances and there were doubts about the authenticity of the bank confirmation. Later the same day, the CFO informed the audit committee he had serious doubts over the bank balances.
KPMG then informed the audit committee that following its enquiries, the bank indicated it had no knowledge of having issued the confirmation.
Raffles Education said it is a passive investor, with no management role in Oriental Century. The former added that in a worst-case scenario, if it needs to write off the investment, the effect is S$34.6mil or just 1.5 cents a share in Raffles Education.
In another case, Beauty China Holdings Ltd told the SGX on Friday that it received a statutory demand from its syndicated lenders to repay an entire loan of HK$134mil (RM63mil). The deadline to do so is March 27 and a failure to reschedule the loan will raise a going-concern issue, it said.
In late February, the stock was suspended from trading when the company said its chairman Wong Hon Wai was in talks with a potential buyer for all his shares.
When the stock was requoted on March 3, it crashed 70% from its pre-suspension price of 37 cents to 11 cents.
It was later revealed that all of Wong’s shares, held through a company, were pledged to obtain credit facilities and some of the shares were forced sold.
Beauty China is one of the biggest domestic brands of cosmetics in China. At the start of last year, it had a total market value equivalent to over RM1bil.
In yet another case, Fibrechem Technologies Ltd announced to the SGX last month that its auditors encountered difficulties finalising its audit of trade receivables and cash balances.
In addition, executive chairman James Shang offered to resign with immediate effect, the company said. The company manufactures chemical fibre in Fujian province, China.
As a result, public anxiety over cash balances spread to other companies. That rolled into China Hongxing Sports Ltd after a sell-down in its share price with high transaction volume – the media and blogs questioned if the cash is in the company when it did not declare a final dividend.
That led the company to issue a statement to the effect that it had 1.98 billion yuan cash as at Dec 31, with borrowings of just six million yuan. The company, which makes sports shoes and apparel in China, said in view of the uncertain economic environment, it was prudent to maintain its cash position and not to declare a final dividend.
These transgressions and apprehension have caused Singaporeans and other investors to lose a lot of money, given S-chips’ higher risk profile and a reputation that some do not deserve.
May 12 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar’s rally is set to end in a “currency crisis,” investor Jim Rogers said, adding that he may bet on a slide in equities after nine weeks of gains.Dollar Rally Will End, Rogers Says; May Short Stocks
The advance in the U.S. currency has been driven by investors covering their short sales, Rogers, 66, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television in Singapore. He may consider adding to his holdings of the yen and prefers the euro to the dollar or the pound, the investor added.
“We’re going to have a currency crisis, probably this fall or the fall of 2010,” Rogers said. “It’s been building up for a long time. We’ve had a huge rally in the dollar, an artificial rally in the dollar, so it’s time for a currency crisis.”
The dollar has climbed against all of the so-called Group of 10 currencies except the yen over the past 12 months, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The U.S. currency was at $1.3592 per euro today from $1.3582.
Rogers joins “Black Swan” author Nassim Nicholas Taleb in avoiding the U.S. currency. Taleb told a May 7 conference in Singapore he preferred gold and copper to the dollar and the euro as the global economy faces a “big deflation.”
Gains in U.S. stocks also signal a “correction,” Rogers said. He’s avoiding equities for the next two to three years because prospects haven’t changed, he added.
(The Business Times) (SHANGHAI) China is at risk of a stock market 'bubble' that may burst as investor confidence in the nation's economic recovery weakens and bank lending slows, according to China Galaxy Securities Co, the nation's largest brokerage.
The Shanghai Composite Index has surged 50 per cent since last year's low on Nov 4 amid signs that the government's stimulus measures are reviving the world's third-largest economy. The gains have driven valuations on the index to 27.2 times earnings, the highest in a year and Asia's third most expensive. These levels are 'signs of a bubble', Galaxy Securities strategists, led by Teng Tai, wrote in a report.
(Business Times)SINGAPORE - Citigroup's Asian wealth management chief said business has improved in 2009 and clients are reducing their cash levels by investing in stocks and bonds, a turnaround from their super defensive stance late last year.
'The paranoia that gripped the market last year has eased off,' Aamir Rahim, CEO Asia-Pacific of Citi Global Wealth Management, told Reuters. 'People are more comfortable taking risk, but are much more disciplined about it.'
'We've actually seen an improvement in the first few months of this year month-on-month in the Asian business and we continue to see that,' he said in interview on Tuesday.
He said clients have begun to deploy some money into markets.
'They are probably still 50 per cent long cash. Late last year they were in the range of 70-80 per cent in cash,' he said.
