Wednesday, May 20, 2009

Turtle, why you buy energy first before buying gold?

All right, after making noises and hints that I am going to buy some commodities and finally did it. This is a first transaction of dipping into commodity for Turtle Portfolio. Some may wonder why I get into energy first and not gold. I have reinterated several times, inflation is going to show up in the next economic recovery stage -- whether it is 1% growth, 2% growth or 4 - 5% growth, I simply have no idea. But as long as the frozen credit market start to flow, confidence will return and economic activities will expand. Not to mention that the governments around the world trying to err on the wrong side i.e. over-reacting, over-stimulating. I hope I get it right. So, beside demand-supply factor, I believe speculating money will flow into commodities again. What if I'm wrong on the timing? Well, it's a small position, so I can afford to top up my investment again -- after seeing a falling knife hits the ground.

One factor is delaying my gold purchase -- IMF has been telling everybody that they plan to sell gold to raise cash. They got plenty of gold. When that happen, gold price may go down. How low? I don't know, when market participants become irrational, it's hard to predict what will be the floor, we have seen that just less than 60 days ago. Stick to one simple principle, buy when I see blood on the street. Since I'm 80% invested for Turtle portfolio, there is no really hurry for me to buy yet. There is always a better investment proposition exists everyday.

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