Recession-Recovery Watch

Some might be thinking that I am trying to make crazy call to get attention especially after the released of bad jobless data that hinting the worst is yet to come. No, I don't work that way. I'm always operate on the maxim of "In God I trust, the rest show me the data".

(i) Intial claim has peaked



(ii)Weekly and Monthly leading indicators show very solid uptick. Monthly leading indicator has turned POSITIVE.



(iii)China PMI - above 50% four months in a row and above pre-Lehman collapsed.



(iv) Crude Oil has been solidly above US $ 50/bbl



(v)I don't believe Baltic Dry Index will collapse



Am I bias in finding data to support the case of the end of recession? YES but if I can find more positive data than negative, this suggest odds are getting a lot better.