Buffett Expects `Large Investment Opportunities' in China

(Bloomberg)Billionaire Warren Buffett said he expects “large” opportunities in China, making the world’s fastest growing major economy a “logical” place to invest.

“Almost anyone, a third-grade child from America, can see that this economy is booming,” Buffett said at a briefing today in the southern Chinese city of Changsha. China’s transformation is “unlike anything that’s ever taken place in history.”

Buffett, 80, is turning his attention outside the U.S. after his Berkshire Hathaway Inc. bought Fort Worth, Texas-based railroad Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp. this year for $27 billion in his largest deal. In China this week, he and Berkshire Vice Chairman Charles Munger visited the facilities of automaker BYD Co., part owned by Berkshire, and with Bill Gates met with local business leaders to promote philanthropy.

“China’s a very big economy and it’s going to get a lot bigger,” Buffett said. “That means it has large investment opportunities and that’s what Berkshire Hathaway is looking for. We need to put large sums to work, so China is a logical place.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-30/buffett-expects-large-investment-opportunities-for-berkshire-in-china.html

Buffet is either getting out of touch and marking the beginning of his investment strategy flaw or he is getting wiser and hitting a bigger jackpot. I am in the latter camp. Maximum bullish China despite they are still having hell of growing pains.

Company watch KPJ Health

While staying on the sideline, I will need to continue to find investment ideas. I'm having 50% cash now.

KPJ recently announced that it will acquire a 51% stake in Jeta Gardens for a cash consideration of RM 19 million. Jeta Gardens is an owner of an aged care facility with 108 beds, 23 units of retirement villas and 32 units of apartment located on 64 acres of land in Queensland, Australia. Jeta Gardens reported a net loss of AUD 2 million for FY ending 2010. I'm not really disturbed by this latest development as turnaround is part of their DNA.



The stock has already undergone corrections, this news invited more selling pressures.

Despite of the stock price moved up by leaps and bounds, this stock is still not very popular among retail investors. If you try to google KPJ on blogsphere, you cannot find any people(except one) talking about it. Only MalaysiaFinance talked about this stock about 8-9 months ago. He put up a very solid case for investment.

He has done the heavy lifting job, be sure you read his thesis. Here is the link: http://malaysiafinance.blogspot.com/2009/12/why-i-like-kpj-healthcare-lot.html

I just want to piggy back a bit more on the reasons why I like this stock. Short answer: operating in a defensive sector, good growth potential and good management that delivering results consistently.

In terms of growth, KPJ is at par if not better than Raffles or Parkway. KPJ's lower margin is understandable because they have not been able to move up to perform some of the higher value added procedures yet.





I believe they will catch up in a couple of years from now. They have demonstrated improvement. Revenue per patient in 2005 was $515 and 2009 was $667. Profit after tax per patient was $25 and moved up tremendously to $51, slightly more than double.

Despite of the past impressive growth and they still can continue to grow due to larger market size compared to Singapore, KPJ is still not getting that kind of premium it deserves. Most of other regional hospital operators are selling for 25 times PE.

The business growth is quite predictable as they are trying to open up more hospitals, 1 - 2 per year. 2 - 3 years from today, they will serve about 2.7 million patients or generating 137 million(2.7 million x 51) after tax profit or per share earning of 0.24. Assuming no change in the PE multiple, 18X will give us a fair value of $ 4.26.

I think we did lose out a bit on the perception that Singapore and Thailand did far better as medical tourism destinations. That causes KPJ suffers a bit of discount. Hopefully, ETP will fix that.

Since we don't have the privilege to some of M & A information to make big money like Gordon Gekko, the only way to make some money is to wait for it to be out-of-favor. It will be hard for this stock to be sold $ 1 for 0.5 after Fortis-Khazah episode(http://in.reuters.com/article/idINIndia-49796020100701). Let's wait for the opportunity.

Disclosure: No position yet.

Unusual Phenomena, still trying to figure it out

12.15 pm. 1 billion shares changed hands before mid-day break. I have not seen 1 billion shares done before lunch break for a while. Much higher volume on the way up will have a high chance of correction because the market is running out of oxygen. What is unusual now is we have big buyers really believe in buy on dip, after a fiece sold down yesterday. The seats are taken as soon as somebody got up. Penny stocks are still holding up well. I am still trying to figure out the direction. On the surface, the logical conclusion is down but market internal suggests Hercules is holding up our market. I opted to stay on the sideline until there is a clear direction.

Took Profit on XDL

Sold 5,000 shares at 0.495 of XDL.

KLCI : 1458

ETP : Should I rush into Construction Counters NOW?

(TheEdgeMalaysia)KUALA LUMPUR: The government has announced the Economic Transformation Programme (ETP) to realise Malaysia’s ambition to turn the country into a high-income economy by 2020.

Minister in the Prime Minister’s Department, Senator Datuk Seri Idris Jala told a hall packed with some 3,000-odd corporate figures and business leaders yesterday that the ETP will help Malaysia triple its Gross National Income (GNI) from RM660 billion (2009) to RM1.7 trillion in 2020.

This translates to an increase of GNI per capita income from RM20,770 (US$6,700) to at least RM46,500 (US$15,000), meeting the World Bank’s high-income benchmark. To help achieve this, the government aims to sustain 6% GNI growth between 2011 and 2020.

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/highlights/173963-roadmap-to-high-income-nation.html

If we all read research notes distributed by our brokers, all of them will tell us that construction sector is a natural winner of ETP programs. Without me going into stocks specific because there are all there but I want to highlight this chart to you. Yes we are seeing the breakout. We saw a huge spike of volume yesteday but the buying momentum was fading. It's a clasic buy the rumor, sell the news?

D-Day

Today is D-day. Dow broke out from 10,700 trading range yesterday and managed to hang on to it. The bull wins. Why I say today is D-day? It's a day to see whether KLCI is getting the tail wind from the US market. I have asked the question whether KLCI will get supercharged if Dow is heading north.

I also posted yesterday retail investors need to be convinced of this rally. For them to be convinced, it has to go through a longer period of time that the market can stay above certain level so that they get a sense of security(often false security!).

For institutional investors, all they are doing now are chasing after relative return. It's like an ugly beauty contest, picking the most beautiful among the ugly ones. That means only two things - yield or/and currency appreciation. Judging on yield and currency appreciation alone, there is a limit it can go.

If we look at dividend yield S & P index 500 as a whole, it is already below 2% but perhaps it is more attractive than short or long dated treasuries. The question is what is the value of S & P 500 when yield is dropping to 1 - 1.5%(1,143 = 1.93% yield)?



http://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-dividend-yield/



http://www.ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/interest-rate/yield.shtml

Need retail investors/punters to push the market higher.

If you look at the trading value by investor category, you can see that retail investors "were there" prior to market peak. Just look at those runs - '93, '97, '99, '07, their level of participation is above 40%. Reaching 50% will make the market very hot. They tend to buy with their hearts rather than with their heads.

This group of investors, unfortunately, tends to have higher level of denial while the market began to slide down. They also tend to over-react by selling out at a distressed price.

No..no....no, I am not talking down the market here. I am talking the current level of 20% participation from retail investors will be difficult to make the market very hot and spicy.

This post is just for information only.

The Nissan GT-R EGOIST, 2012 Launch

Found some great pictures of The Nissan GT-R at http://www.gtrblog.com/. According to "sources" this model will be launched in 2012.

They have pointed out the very obvious. Naming it EGOIST. Not so egoistic anyway, the rich has been pouring their money into hard assets. The rich, they said, got very sick of losing money. So, when they buy some toys, at least they got some kind of satisfaction in return - at least getting a few stares whenever they go.

It's too bad for those who are "less rich". They can't vent their frustration by writing a US $ 100 k cheque (could be more). They can just look the pictures and admiring them, just like we were kids browsing car magazines in the book store

My "Legend" engine finally gave way yesterday. Got tired of keep feeding him with engine oil and finally loosening my wallet. I made a big decision, bought a much bigger engine that promise me 250 hp. Will let you all know how it feel when the job is completed in about 10 days time.

My target of KLCI 1450 has been reached. At this point of time, we all need to look at downside rather than upside. Losing 10% is high compared to gaining another 10%. Since I'm invested quite a bit at lower level, I'm looking at unloading rather than loading.

Those have been bearish for whole 1.5 years and thinking of going in will need to be careful. If their hands are really itchy, they should at least wait for a pullback and see whether there are genuine buyers out there.

Have a nice weekend.

Big bosses bullish about the US economy

I am leaving something for you to think about of the biggest names see economy is turning around and rule out double dip recession.

"The best is yet to come."

"I am a huge bull on this country. We are not going to have a double-dip recession at all," said Buffett, chairman of the Omaha, Nebraska-based Berkshire Hathaway Inc. "I see our businesses coming back across the board."

Buffett

Immelt said angry political rhetoric was not helpful and headlines were too focused on finding negative indicators. He said business at GE, one of the world's largest companies, was improving.

Jeff Immelt


"I am very enthusiastic what the future holds for our industry and what our industry will mean for growth in other industries,"
Steve Balmer

Read more: Buffett upbeat about economic future http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/buffbal/Article/#ixzz0zbNFEyAk

Wall Street: Money never sleeps

If you want to access to the best of propriety trading brains, be an actor.

He impressed those around him by enthusiastically researching the heady world of proprietary trading, arriving in Manhattan 2½ months early to learn the ropes. And the attitude.

"It is a live-by-the-seat-of-your-pants mentality," he says. "I talked to a lot of Goldman Sachs people, and one of the requirements of getting a job takes place in the first five minutes of an interview. They take you out to eat. The minute the menu hits the table, if you can't order within 30 seconds, you don't have the job."

Being in the new Wall Street had some side benefits, such as when he put his newfound trading skills to work. "I opened up an account when I first met Oliver," LaBeouf says. "It was $20,000. This morning, it was $297,000."

http://www.usatoday.com/money/media/2010-01-22-2010preview22_CV_N.htm

Wow, the Transformer kid turned 20,000 into 297,000. He did not mention what was the duration of return period. Shame on you pros if you can't beat the kid who is just an actor or the kid may bullshit everyone.

Anyway, I'm looking forward to watch the movie next week, coincides with Lehman Brother bankruptcy 2nd anniversary. Greed is good!?

Good news all over the place.

From a double dip recession talk, suddenly, the whole world is filled with lots of good news - CHINA is heading for a soft landing, Asian banks are well capitalized, Euro zone growth is doing fine, etc.......

It will be interesting to find out where KLCI wil be heading. Normally higher beta market like Hong Kong will peak first and our market will be the last man standing. This time round Hang Seng Index is barely making any new high. Dow Jones on the other hand has not challenged 11,000 or 13,000 yet. When those markets go higher, can KLCI super-charge and go even higher?

With such a generic talk from me means I have no idea where KLCI is heading for now.

Is Malaysia slippage in competitiveness index a concern?

(Business Times) Malaysia has slipped two spots to 26th in a ranking of the world's most competitive countries, on concerns of higher education and training, technological readiness and labour market efficiency.

The 2010-2011 Global Competitiveness Report placed Malaysia 26th among 139 economies, from 24th out of 133 countries in the previous report. The report was released by the World Economic Forum (WEF) yesterday.

Malaysia, however, maintained its score, recording 4.88 out of a maximum score of seven, in comparison to a score of 4.87 previously.

According to the report, Malaysia's position has been on a declining trend in the past three years since its 21st position in 2008-2009.

Read more: Malaysia slips in competitiveness http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/rup0901/Article/#ixzz0z5r9x7K1

The law of relativity is at work here. If we don't move forward, we will move backward. Look at this chart, it tells us that when somebody moved up, somebody will be moved down.Saudi Arabia and Qatar for example had moved up significantly, so some guys will be moved down. If China were to move up by one notch next year, everything being equals, Malaysia will be moved down by one notch.



Which areas are holding us back? Higher education, innovation and technological readiness. All three are inter-related, withouth higher education, the other two would be lagging behind naturally.



We are good in terms of business sophistication and financial market development. Both of these are good ingredients for future competitiveness. This tells us that imbalances between urban and rural gap is growing(wealth and digital divide?).

Saudara and Saudari seklian, Turtle mengucapkan Selamat Hari Raya.

If I am a CEO, will I do share buybacks?

If I am a CEO, will I do share buybacks?

Let me warm up the topic by quoting Warren Buffett, in 1999, he said this:

‘Now, repurchases are all the rage, but are all too often made for an unstated and, in our view, ignoble reason, to pump up or support the stock price. The shareholder who chooses to sell today, of course, is benefited by any buyer, whatever his origin or motives. But the continuing shareholder is penalised by repurchases above intrinsic value. Buying dollar bills for $1.10 is not good business for those who stick around.’

I believe we got to stick to one principle, buying dollar bills for $ 0.50. If we are really convinced that the company is undervalued substantially, do it in a big way. Never take a quarter of viagra tablet and mixed it with 1 litter of honey.

Let me show you a table of how YTL who has been doing share buybacks regularly.



A few observations:

1. They bought back very little when the overall market was depressed in 2009. They tend to get excited during the bull run - 2007?

2. For whatever reasons, the number of outstanding shares did not reduce over a period of time, why? ESOS, warrant conversion, right issues, etc? I just have no idea. Why buy back when they need money to fund expansion?

3. Why buy back when they have lots of debts on theirs balance sheet, though they also have almost same about of cash? Won't be it good if they pare down debts?



4. They would have returned almost $ 1.2/share as cash dividend. If they want shareholder to make money from share dividend, then they must distribute when market is hot or else capital gain by disposing it at open market will be limited. It is almost acting like fund manager function but do they have the time or skill?

So to answer the question. If I am a CEO I will buy back shares if my company has:-

1. A plenty of cash. No debts.

2. No strategic acquisitions to make. I would prefer to use cash to buy competitions to grow stronger and bigger rather than returning cash.

3. Diluting returns if I continue to expand my business(if I have more than 60-70% market share).

4. Don't do stupid things by diversifying into much lower return businesses.

5. When the whole market is really depressed. I am acting as a money manager for shareholders when they are too afraid to invest. I will make more money for shareholders by buying low - selling high(give them as dividend shares in 2007?). August 1998, 2001, March 2009 would be ideal entry points.


Disclaimer: I am not a CEO but would be happy to be hired. :-

Mimimum Wages ---- Part 1

(AsiaOne) SHAH ALAM - Malaysia will have a minimum wage model that is tailored to fit the country's economic situation and the needs of its working force. Human Resources Minister Datuk Dr S. Subramaniam said the model, which would be tabled at the cabinet in October, would be unique and unlike other countries', although he said it might not include all sectors.

He said data collection had been conducted and the ministry would meet representatives from each sector to discuss the minimum wage model before preparing a cabinet paper.

"We have organised a seminar to get feedback and input from various sectors. Once we have collected sufficient information, I will prepare a paper to ask the cabinet on the direction to go, be it national, sectoral or regional.

http://www.asiaone.com/Business/News/Story/A1Story20100811-231515.html

Before I am giving my views whether we should implement minimum wage or not, take a look at this table first(employment by sector).



60% of working adults are being employed in the manufacturing(28%), so called others(utilities, wholesale, retail trade, accommodation, restaurant)(29%) and agriculture(12%). Government makes up another 12% of it.

Before I make further comments, there are a few arguments need to be put aside.

First let's get rid of emotional argument that big businesses are making billion or million of ringgit profits while a poor sales girl in department store is making 600/month can't make all the ends and the like, so why can't you pay her a bit more?

Second, get rid of opportunistic politician stupid argument that we ought to implement minimum wage so that we can be a high income nation.

Third, Mee too argument, many countries like Thailand or Philippines are also implementing minimum wages. So we must follow suit but where are they?


Let me start with manufacturing group first. Market driven wages followers will believe that if you can't pay a person enough, you won't be able to get a worker. Subsequently your business will collapse because nobody works for you.

If your cost is too high(set by businesses or government), you just cannot compete in the world subsequently your whole industry will be wiped out. Have you heard of hollow out story? You have heard of manufacturing sector in the United States or Britain are dead, right? Have you heard of the story of Berkshire Hathaway told by Brother Warren Buffett?

The industry will do well in countries that have the lowest cost. Whether you like it or not, the technological advantage is no longer an advantage because your competitors will catch up so fast and slashed price. How you ever pay more for LCD TV in recent days?

If you believe the Foxconn's operators in Shenzhen, China earn RM 2,000/month. Very soon Foxconn will move their bases out of China to Vietnam, inner China or Malaysia, Thailand and etc. So, the global market forces will take care of that.

Let's get real, if you believe the poor operators are earning less than RM 350, then I think you get con. Many of them can actually afford to drive cars because they have lots of overtime. Do you know how low paid workers in China survive? Basically, the employers will provide accommodation and meals and they will work lots of overtime.

Still insist minimum wage, no problem go ahead, let's say 30% of the manufacturing business gulung tikar or 1 million people go unemployed. Can you find a home for them? I think we will end up with more Mat rempits or snatch thieves on the street.

The second group of people which are more domestic consumption driven -- small businesses. If you want to raise the minimum wage of waiter to RM 1,500, then we are paying them RM 6.25 per hour. No problem, then our roti canai, teh tarik, etc will go up. If nobody wants to pay for this additional cost, many small traders will die because they can't compete with larger and more efficient operators or self-service operators. Most likely the lower income bracket people will suffer again because they don't have many choices but to continue to use their services by absorbing the cost increase. So raise the minimum wages again?

The third group, the so called the dirty and dangerous industry - agriculture. The industry that our local people will never want to work. So why bother to even talk about minimum wage?

Retirement issues ---- Part 1

While I have not reached my retirement age yet but I don't know why I would like to comment about retirement and aging topic.

TheStar“Our population age structure has changed. There’s now more visibility of older people, and we have never faced this before,” says Assoc Prof Tengku Aizan Hamid, the director of Universiti Putra Malaysia’s Institute of Gerontology.

Such pronounced changes in the population profile are bound to have a significant impact. “This social phenomenon of an ageing society carries significant implications for all involved,” says Financial Planning Association of Malaysia (FPAM) deputy president Tan Beng Wah. The association has teamed up with the Employees Provident Fund (EPF) to organise a conference and exhibition in October called Everyone Can Retire Well.

This will be at least the fourth event in Malaysia in a span of four months this year that focuses on ageing or retirement. It is apparent that many people have realised the need for more thought and discussions on how to respond to the fact that the population is getting older. And about time too.


Assoc Prof Tengku Aizan Hamid ... ‘People think of ageing as a negative thing. But it’s not.’

When a country ages, so does its workforce. With that comes the worry that the number of people retiring will eventually become a problem. However, experts say the urgency of this aspect has yet to be broadly recognised.

“The key point we’re missing is that we have this large pool of knowledgable people with vast experience in many fields, and it would be a shame if we let this go to waste,” points out National Economic Advisory Council (NEAC) member Datuk Dr Zainal Aznam Yusof, who is the pro-tem chairman of the newly founded Foundation for Sustainable Retirement.

At the crux of this is the fact that Malaysians retire well ahead of their life expectancy. Civil servants retire at 58, while in the public sector, most employers set 55 as the retirement age. Most people are exiting the labour market when they still have a lot left in the tank.

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2010/9/4/business/6960500&sec=business

The common question is: what is the right age to retire?

To be able to retire, the first criteria is: am I got enough money to live till my last breath? If you are getting married between 30 - 35, most likely you will have child/children between 20-25 when they are about coming out to work. We all should be thankful if they are not coming back and asking money from papa and mama. So forget about them to support you.

How much money do you need to retire? I think the minimum amount even for the average "frugal" person will be about RM 2,400/month. My imagination of the future spending will be something like this:



To be able to live until I die without touching my retirement fund based on 3.5% return per year, I would need $ 822,857 ( 822,857 * 3.5% = 28,800 per year or $ 2,400).

Assuming I don't have any investment income, $ 822,857 will last me 28 years. If I retire at the age of 55, I will run out of money at the age of 83.

The next tricky question is how do I get $ 822,857 ? Then I will need to make some assumptions:-

1. Monthly saving = RM 1,500
2. Monthly salary = RM 5,000
3. Annual investment return = 5%

It will take me 24 years to reach $ 822,857.

This is to assume that I'm earning roughly RM 5,000/month at 30 years old. Wow, that means I can only retire at the age of 54.

So, logically an average earning professional should retire around 55 years old.

What about a guy/gal earning $ 3,000/month. He will have to cut his monthly expense to $1,300/month.



With $ 3,000/month, 20% saving =7,200/year. At 5% CAGR, it will take him/her 28 years to reach $ 445,714 to last him about 28 years.

Those want to go around the world, playing golf everyday, spending time going out all the time will have to earn a lot more during their productive age. A guy with RM 10,000/month salary will have roughly about RM 1.5 million with monthly saving of 2,500 with CAGR return of 5%. He/she can afford $4,464/month to last for 28 years.

So from financial hard numbers, the right age to accummulate enough to retire will be around 55 - 58 years old.

Soooooooooo? Still got to continue to work-lah!

Commentary on OSK Research Property Super Cycle

When I was in the school, one of my professors has a very weird way of evaluating our course work. Whoever submitted the thickest bind will get an A. If I use his criteria, OSK will get an A. A for effort. 40 pages certainly a good effort to expound a sophisticated theory.

Then I have another professor who has the other extreme way of evaluating us. He will want us to be able to reduce it to one page A4 regardless of how complex the issue is. Any one can do that will be able get an A. A for understanding.

OSK writes a good thesis and I can give him double As but I have one question for him at the end of my posting. He reduced his whole thesis into the following points:

## A major mass housing boom will likely occur in the first half of this decade;

## We are in the early stage of a property ‘super cycle’ led mainly by mid-to-high end landed properties which may peak sometime in 2012/13 and followed by a potential slump;

## The current 20-year secular boom in mid-to-high end residential properties since the early 1990s may peak in 2012/13, after which mass affordable housing could dominate the real estate theme until circa 2015/16;

## Stocks with focus in the mid-to-high end segment (e.g. Sunrise, YNH Prop, IGB Corp and BRDB) are your best bets for the next 12 months prior to the 2012/13potential peak. Mass housing developers, especially the ‘fallen angles’ such as LBS Bina and MK Land may come to the fore as another major investment theme after that. For “best-of-all-worlds’’ exposure during this period, BUY SP Setia.

The central of the thesis is that the 1950s baby boomers has been moving into different stages of life cycle. They have been influencing different product segment of housing demand(from mass housing and now moving into final stage of high end landed properties). They are now in their early 50s and have plenty of money. Most of their money are sitting pretty much in cash and looking ways to get higher return with minimum risk. The bankers who are ever ready to fuel the speculation are supplying them a plenty of cheap liquidity to leverage up.

This chart illustrates how growth rate of boomers affecting the property cycle.



The property price is breaking out from the previous high -- prior to 1997/98 financial crisis. So the crazy fun party should continue.



He warns that the cycle will peak by 2012 because the boomers demographic will head to a downtrend. That will slow the demand -- pricking the bubble.



The other reason given is deferred down payment and adjustable mortgage rate is due in late 2011 or early 2012.



OSK went on to provide good historical valuation reference point.



I must say this is one of the better research paper that I came across for a while.

Let me introduce you to my last favorite Professor. When ever he listened to a very well presented paper, he will say: well researched, well thought out but is it VALID? We can get a D for it if it is INVALID.

Look at the chart below, blue is KLCI index and red is Property stock index



The property index has been moving very closely with KLCI index. Look at critical year like 97 before things fell apart, both were peaking together. The property index however is under-performed the KLCI index for the last 10 years, though we get ocassional spikes during the stock market run ups. If OSK research is right with their theory that we have been experiencing a housing bull market for the last 20 years, I am sure the earnings from home builder would have grown by leaps and bounds. The property index should have at least should not underperformed the KLCI so badly.

It's a known fact that US has a property bubble from 2003 - 2006. I'm giving you two US home builders (KB Home and Toll Brothers) to see how housing bubble lifted the home builder shares. Can see how these stocks outperformed S & P 500 by a wide margin?



I am not saying the property counters will not go up but the reason of its going up due to super cycle is questionable. The bull run duration is typically between 24-36 months. If we start counting from March 2009, it will probably peak around late 2011 to 2012. When KLCI rolls over, property counters will follow suit too. Well researched, well argued but is it VALID?

Straight talk, kopitiam talk, talk talk???

Let me be straight, ah -- it's a dangerous opening line actually. You know that I am going to talk about something is not so straight forward.

It's mind boggling now because we are at a very uncertain cross road -- the bull and bear are arguing ferociously. Let's start with the bear first.

The bear said that we are going to get into double dip recession.

The bear also said that this market is dominated by technical traders. One of the very bad technical pictures that has formed recently was Hinderburg Omen. All market crashes displayed Hinderburg Omen's characterictis but NOT all Hinderburg Omen's warnings necessary will lead to market crashes(hello are you talk talk??)

It's pretty much useless to me but if you are interested in the detail go here: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article5334.html

You may also want to see its reliability in this chart. If you are sharp, you can really see it, can you see it?




Never mind, let's move on. Our selective perception is the secret of human surviving instinct. If you are bearish, you will see a Shoulder-Head-Shoulder pattern, then will start to fit all kind of data into your head, once your see DOW 9899 you call for DOW 5000 again! Amazing huh?



Let's rotate our seat, what say you Mr. Bull?

They will say double dip is a very rare thing, it's only happen in 1930s and early 1980s. One was very close to the Great Depression(which I think we are very far from it), then the other one was in the early 1980s when Volker tightened the interest rate screw so tight all the way to 13.5% -- trust me nobody can breathe. Those people in their late 50 or early 60 years will remember they have to refinance their loan 7 - 8 times/year(Psst --- I am not that old). So you tell me how not to have double dip recession?

Today environment is so different because it is supported by whole bunch of stimulus packages and almost zero interest rate. So how to have double dip?

Back to selective perception again, the more optimistic will look at it we are in a trading range ( stuck between 10,000 - 10,700), we got to see whether it's break down or break out to resolve this deadlock. Or else like that-lah, all blogs will go into comma-TOAST.

This kopitiam talk enough or not? Very sorry if I have committed a lot of grammar mistakes or china man English in this entry because I am really rushing.

See you all in the weekend. What a stingy bugger I am, only 2 entries this week!


One last tipsy --- the moral of the story from Uncle Turtle is understand CAUSE and EFFECT, understand or not?