Monday, March 14, 2011

Japanese Quake and Japanese Yen

I have no idea what the market is doing because this post is written on March 12, 11.

I got this picture from

If one were to compare the magnitude of recent quake to 1995 Kobe quake, the yen recovered in 3-4 months while the stock market recovered after six months.
They focused on all entries in the “Chronology of Important World Events” from the World Almanac for the period beginning with Pearl Harbor, and then eliminated from their list any events that the New York Times didn’t carry as a lead story and that the Times business section didn’t report as having affected investors.

There is an analysis appeared on Market Watch saying non-economic events has small effect on the stock market. The panic will normally short lived.

(Market Watch)The result was a list of 49 distinct events. On the day the news of those events hit the market, the S&P 500 moved just 1.46% on average, less than one percentage point more than the 0.56% that prevailed on all other days. Because of this small difference, the professors concluded that there’s a “surprisingly small effect” of noneconomic news on the stock market.


Intrinsic said...

BOJ has already expanded their QE program from 5 to 10 Trillion Yen (120billion), to have the scale of QE 2 in the US, they need to implement the full size 30 Trillion Yen. As the government already indebted up to 200% of GDP, they are treading a fine line going forward. Japanese corporate, government and individuals own up to 850 billion worth US Treasuries. If they need to dip into their savings for reconstruction. Keep an eye for the yield curve on US debts.

Intrinsic said...

Bank of Japan Policy options