Monday, June 25, 2012

A long trip and finally get to make market comments

I was out in the middle kingdom for almost 2 weeks and felt like eternal and pretty exhausted. As usual, perhaps I was too lazy to find ways to go around to blog when I was there.

It's one of a funny situation we are in. KLCI broke above 1,600 again, unbelievable. Like I said in my previous post before I left, foreign ownership has been in its lowest level and retail investors participation had been very low. So who the hell is in the market? The convenient way or simplest explanation will be the gomen is engineering an artificial support in preparation of a general election. If that is the case, it will be the same group of people(EPF and local fund managers) will dump share later. 

The Greek tragedy turned out to be okay but market faded pretty quickly. The Fed said the economy(the US) is kind of weak but not weak enough to inject drugs(QE) yet. The market pulled back violently.

Crude oil price dipped briefly below USD 80 per barrel. That kind tells us the economic activities pulse is very weak. If this were to go on and on, it will reveal I know and certain of one thing. I don't know anything. :)

However, I still believe that commodity trader is able to price in economic risks better than equity. No sign of turning around of commodity index is still a concern.

There is also no sign of turning around in the Chinese Stock market kind of concern me as well.

During this trip, I observed the restaurants crowd are finally receding. Interest rate cut by Chinese central banker signals something. It needs more than loosening grip to jump start the slowing economy. The PMI reading persistently below 50(contraction)

I am very tempted to rush into economic sensitive stocks/sectors but the indexes are still hardly coming down from its elevated level. Here are some for your information.

I might hit record low posting this month. Don't worry, however, it's not signs of I'm running out of gas but just running out of worthwhile value added commentary. Thank you everyone for the kind comments while I was away. Take care.

1 comment:

Kris said...

Property is still going strong. No clear weakness, as clearly supply has surpassed demand.