Saturday, March 29, 2014

Can we believe in China reformation?

There are several signs of real slow down in traditional engine of growth for China:

China's monthly export growth is slowing down awfully.

China's urban fixed-asset investments have also showing very serious slow down from last few years more than 30% to now into mid-teens. They target to maintain around 17.5%

Fast pace China's government debt especially at the local level is certainly something that everybody is concerned but mostly are invested in infrastructure. Some are white elephants but there are also many that worth something and generating revenue sometime in the future.

The best part of all, despite of many traditional indicators of export oriented and infrastructure base growth heading south, the Chinese government did not go back to old habits of loosening up or pump in more infrastructure. They did something very new compared to the past,  step hard on accelerator at full throttle to press ahead with many reform programs:

  • Liberalization of deposit rates
  • Market driven lending rates
  • Fiscal and tax reform to address the local government debts
  • Allow greater daily fluctuation of RMB exchange rates
  • Allow some zombie companies to go under belly as long as it does not pose systemic risks

  • the list goes on 

I really like the price action now. This chart shows a very nice bottoming and first higher high is in the making.

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