Monday, November 3, 2014

One of the best articles - Malaysia-Finance: Investing Paths

Time really flies. I first got to know Malaysia-Finance blogspot by reading his articles on The Star. That was in early 2008. I like his Investing Paths instantly and I think this can be a classic piece that will never aged.

He summed very nicely about different styles of investment and what every investor would most probably have gone through. I can relate instantly when I read his article because I tried most of them. What I like the best was his best advice that summed up nicely at the last paragraph of this article. 

P.S. I will be back and have a lot of things to say when the bear market is back! Until then posting will be extremely infrequent.

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Investing Paths
Everyone who starts investing will try to understand the stock markets by talking with others who have been investing. Then we all move on to reading books by the Grahams, Lynchs and Buffetts of the investing world. Probably after losing more money, we will gravitate towards the technicals and charting gurus: the waves, oscillators, fibonaccis, RSI, momentum, etc. So what do we end up with?

Some of us stick to a tried and trusted way of investing, or just something we are comfortable with, or something we can understand. So which groupie do you belong to?

Fundamental Analysis – This group basically looks at the cause-effect in investing variables. This can be broken up into two groups, namely, top-down or bottom-up. The former refers to getting the macro picture and capital flows correct. This will give the investor a proper perspective on country and currency exposure. If you get the country and currency correct, it doesn’t really matter much about picking the right stocks. Get the big picture wrong and it matters little whether your have picked some great value stocks – great value stocks would remain just that, great value, not performing stocks.

Then there are those who would swear off the big picture volatility analysis, seeing stocks as basically long term companies doing a certain kind of business. The bottom-up investor would stay focus on picking undervalued stocks and based on the theory that holding a good long term stock would eventually outperform in the long run, riding out the volatility.

A financial analyst or business analyst would be doing things from a bottom-up perspective. Breaking down product lines, revenue streams, debt levels, cash flow analysis, product outlook, business model, margins and sustainability of earnings, among others.

To be fair, most fundamentals investors employ both approaches in some way or other. A top-down person would need to be more well versed with economics while the bottom-up needs to appreciate the nuances of accounting. People in this camp wants everything to be explained, the cause-effect. If they did not spot the correction beforehand, its because they haven’t been giving adequate attention to certain investing variables.

Put another way:
Top-Down Investing People with a bit of economics knowledge but scared shitless about accounting Bottom-Up Investing People who knows a bit about accounting but hates fiction

Then there are the ones who embraced technicals and charting religiously. These are basically pattern seekers, they try to find pattern from historical prices. To me, these are people who have basically given up trying to understand stocks. They are basically saying there is not much point trying to understand fundamentals, its either too hard or that it doesn’t matter much really in the end. On the other hand, the patterns and data may yield more than just trends, they believe that the human psychology and the way people invest are already reflected in past data: and they tend to repeat themselves. If you are able to decipher trends, breakouts and supports: you are golden.

To be fair, there are some who employ a mish-mash strategy of fundamentals and charting in investing. Here, I am not trying to say which is the better option as most reported studies tend to come to the conclusion that it is very difficult to beat the market in the long run. People like Buffett and Lynch are explained as minor aberrations to the data. This doesn’t sound good for the average investor, does it!

Big investment houses employ highly paid quants to do analysis and highly evolved econometric models to squeeze anomalies (returns) from the market place. Quantitative finance might sound like rocket science but even they are not infallible. Just look at the LTCM and Goldman Sach’s in-house hedge fund experience.

Hence, we cannot roll our eyes if a seasoned trader said that he/she relies on market rumours or whispers to make his/her stock selection. A bull market has the effect of making almost everyone think that they have harvested the ability to be brilliant stock pickers. A bull market only made it easier to pick performing stocks.

It is probably the mystique of being successful in investing that keeps investors baffled yet attracted to the field.
I am terribly sorry that I am not able to provide a better alternative to the above. I do feel that there are strengths and weaknesses with each of the investing strategy.

If I may try to add some value, is to encourage young investors to pay more attention to behavioural finance in addition to the stuff in textbooks. It is important to understand the madness of crowds. Another point is to read up more on investing variables, examine their cause-effect relationship, and then rank them in your head in order of importance. The trouble is you can read books and watch the business programs but you will be inundated with information overload. We have to learn to rank and sift the b.s. from the things that address the issues at hand properly.

To extend on the cause-effect on investing variables, we need to go further down the chain of events. Its like a good chess player and a grandmaster. A good player may be able to think 3 or 4 moves ahead but a grandmaster can go much farther. I do think by stretching your analysis, it gives you an edge.

We need all the help we can get. As Soros rightly put it, "More importantly, it is how much money you make when you're right about the market and how much you lose when you're wrong. " To do that: we need to get the big picture right; we need to get the exit, entry and cut loss prices right; and we need to pick the right stocks with corresponding valuation and growth implied, and note them when the variables start to deteriorate. We need all the tools that will help us achieve that.



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I just love this article! You know I was looking for exactly the same information that you conveyed here. Actually I have to prepare a presentation on “investing paths”. Actually there is a competition in our college and Dr. Aloke Ghosh is the Chief Guest. You know he is the Member of American Accounting Association!!

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Loan Amount Needed:.
Purpose of loan:.......
Loan Duration:..
Gender:.............
Marital status:....
Location:..........
Home Address:..
City:............
Country:......
Phone:..........
Mobile / Cell:....
Occupation:......
Monthly Income:....

Contact Us At :oceancashcapital@gmail.com
Website http://oceancashmj.com
Phone Number:+1-6474-864-724 (Call/Whats app)

Joan Diane said...

Do you need a loan .We are Legitimate and guarantee loan lender. We are a company with financial assistance. We loan funds out to individuals in need of financial assistance, that have a bad credit or in need of money to pay bills, to invest on business. I want to use this medium to inform you that we render reliable beneficiary assistance as We'll be glad to offer you a loan Contact us via Email: Joan.dlenders@gmail.com

Services Rendered include

*Debt Consolidation
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*Personal Loans.
*Car Loans
*Rent and House Loans

Write back if interested with our interest rate of 4% annual. Contact us via Email: Joan.dlenders@gmail.com

scott larry said...

Hello my name is Larry Scott Gregory and i am a private loan lender.

Are you in need of a loan? Do you want to be financially stable? Or do you want to expand your business? We offer company loan, auto loan, business loan, and personal loan at a very reduced interest rate of 3% with comfortable duration which is negotiable. This offer is open to all that will be able to pay back in due time.

Contact us via our email: larryfinance@yahoo.com

I await you swift response.
larryfinance@yahoo.com
Larry Scott Gregory

KATHLEEN FOSTER LOAN FIRM said...

Hello,
Are you in need of urgent financial assistance for a personal purpose or for your business needs? Here is some good news for you. We offer loans to individuals or corporate firms at the lowest annual percentage rate.
Contact us today to get:-
*Hard Money Loans
*Business Loan
*Debt Consolidation Loan
*Personal Loan
*Business Expansion Loan
*Student Loan
*Agricultural Development Loan
...And Lots more

Email: kathleenfosterloanfirm@gmail.com​
You can also contact our HEADQUARTERS via:
kathleenfosterloanfirmUS@gmail.com

Name of creditor: Mrs. Kathleen

Osman raheem said...

Hello Everybody,
My name is Ahmad Asnul Brunei, I contacted Mr Osman Loan Firm for a business loan amount of $250,000, Then i was told about the step of approving my requested loan amount, after taking the risk again because i was so much desperate of setting up a business to my greatest surprise, the loan amount was credited to my bank account within 24 banking hours without any stress of getting my loan. I was surprise because i was first fall a victim of scam! If you are interested of securing any loan amount & you are located in any country, I'll advise you can contact Mr Osman Loan Firm via email osmanloanserves@gmail.com

LOAN APPLICATION INFORMATION FORM
First name......
Middle name.....
2) Gender:.........
3) Loan Amount Needed:.........
4) Loan Duration:.........
5) Country:.........
6) Home Address:.........
7) Mobile Number:.........
8) Email address..........
9) Monthly Income:.....................
10) Occupation:...........................
11)Which site did you here about us.....................
Thanks and Best Regards.
Derek Email osmanloanserves@gmail.com

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