Monday, November 3, 2014

One of the best articles - Malaysia-Finance: Investing Paths

Time really flies. I first got to know Malaysia-Finance blogspot by reading his articles on The Star. That was in early 2008. I like his Investing Paths instantly and I think this can be a classic piece that will never aged.

He summed very nicely about different styles of investment and what every investor would most probably have gone through. I can relate instantly when I read his article because I tried most of them. What I like the best was his best advice that summed up nicely at the last paragraph of this article. 

P.S. I will be back and have a lot of things to say when the bear market is back! Until then posting will be extremely infrequent.

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Investing Paths
Everyone who starts investing will try to understand the stock markets by talking with others who have been investing. Then we all move on to reading books by the Grahams, Lynchs and Buffetts of the investing world. Probably after losing more money, we will gravitate towards the technicals and charting gurus: the waves, oscillators, fibonaccis, RSI, momentum, etc. So what do we end up with?

Some of us stick to a tried and trusted way of investing, or just something we are comfortable with, or something we can understand. So which groupie do you belong to?

Fundamental Analysis – This group basically looks at the cause-effect in investing variables. This can be broken up into two groups, namely, top-down or bottom-up. The former refers to getting the macro picture and capital flows correct. This will give the investor a proper perspective on country and currency exposure. If you get the country and currency correct, it doesn’t really matter much about picking the right stocks. Get the big picture wrong and it matters little whether your have picked some great value stocks – great value stocks would remain just that, great value, not performing stocks.

Then there are those who would swear off the big picture volatility analysis, seeing stocks as basically long term companies doing a certain kind of business. The bottom-up investor would stay focus on picking undervalued stocks and based on the theory that holding a good long term stock would eventually outperform in the long run, riding out the volatility.

A financial analyst or business analyst would be doing things from a bottom-up perspective. Breaking down product lines, revenue streams, debt levels, cash flow analysis, product outlook, business model, margins and sustainability of earnings, among others.

To be fair, most fundamentals investors employ both approaches in some way or other. A top-down person would need to be more well versed with economics while the bottom-up needs to appreciate the nuances of accounting. People in this camp wants everything to be explained, the cause-effect. If they did not spot the correction beforehand, its because they haven’t been giving adequate attention to certain investing variables.

Put another way:
Top-Down Investing People with a bit of economics knowledge but scared shitless about accounting Bottom-Up Investing People who knows a bit about accounting but hates fiction

Then there are the ones who embraced technicals and charting religiously. These are basically pattern seekers, they try to find pattern from historical prices. To me, these are people who have basically given up trying to understand stocks. They are basically saying there is not much point trying to understand fundamentals, its either too hard or that it doesn’t matter much really in the end. On the other hand, the patterns and data may yield more than just trends, they believe that the human psychology and the way people invest are already reflected in past data: and they tend to repeat themselves. If you are able to decipher trends, breakouts and supports: you are golden.

To be fair, there are some who employ a mish-mash strategy of fundamentals and charting in investing. Here, I am not trying to say which is the better option as most reported studies tend to come to the conclusion that it is very difficult to beat the market in the long run. People like Buffett and Lynch are explained as minor aberrations to the data. This doesn’t sound good for the average investor, does it!

Big investment houses employ highly paid quants to do analysis and highly evolved econometric models to squeeze anomalies (returns) from the market place. Quantitative finance might sound like rocket science but even they are not infallible. Just look at the LTCM and Goldman Sach’s in-house hedge fund experience.

Hence, we cannot roll our eyes if a seasoned trader said that he/she relies on market rumours or whispers to make his/her stock selection. A bull market has the effect of making almost everyone think that they have harvested the ability to be brilliant stock pickers. A bull market only made it easier to pick performing stocks.

It is probably the mystique of being successful in investing that keeps investors baffled yet attracted to the field.
I am terribly sorry that I am not able to provide a better alternative to the above. I do feel that there are strengths and weaknesses with each of the investing strategy.

If I may try to add some value, is to encourage young investors to pay more attention to behavioural finance in addition to the stuff in textbooks. It is important to understand the madness of crowds. Another point is to read up more on investing variables, examine their cause-effect relationship, and then rank them in your head in order of importance. The trouble is you can read books and watch the business programs but you will be inundated with information overload. We have to learn to rank and sift the b.s. from the things that address the issues at hand properly.

To extend on the cause-effect on investing variables, we need to go further down the chain of events. Its like a good chess player and a grandmaster. A good player may be able to think 3 or 4 moves ahead but a grandmaster can go much farther. I do think by stretching your analysis, it gives you an edge.

We need all the help we can get. As Soros rightly put it, "More importantly, it is how much money you make when you're right about the market and how much you lose when you're wrong. " To do that: we need to get the big picture right; we need to get the exit, entry and cut loss prices right; and we need to pick the right stocks with corresponding valuation and growth implied, and note them when the variables start to deteriorate. We need all the tools that will help us achieve that.



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My name is.Mrs Cynthia Corvin. I live in Ukraine i am a happy woman today? i need to use this time to tell all people how i got my loan from this honest and God fearing man loan lender that help me with a loan of $140,000 please contact him. if you also need a loan without any problem he name is Dr Purva Pius email {urgentloan22@gmail.com} tell him that is Mrs CYNTHIA CORVIN that refer you to he contact Email {urgentloan22@gmail.com}

Mrs CYNTHIA CORVIN said...

Hello Everybody,
My name is Mrs Sharon Sim. I live in Singapore and i am a happy woman today? and i told my self that any lender that rescue my family from our poor situation, i will refer any person that is looking for loan to him, he gave me happiness to me and my family, i was in need of a loan of S$250,000.00 to start my life all over as i am a single mother with 3 kids I met this honest and GOD fearing man loan lender that help me with a loan of S$250,000.00 SG. Dollar, he is a GOD fearing man, if you are in need of loan and you will pay back the loan please contact him tell him that is Mrs Sharon, that refer you to him. contact Dr Purva Pius,via email:(urgentloan22@gmail.com) Thank you.

Anonymous said...

Private Lender Avit Investment Authority.
Greetings to you by ADIA.

We are a France-Paris based investment company known as Avit
Development Investment Authority working on expanding its portfolio
globally and financing projects.

We would be happy to fund and invest with you in any profitable
project if you have any viable project we can finance by making mutual
investment with you. If you are interested, kindly contact us
on:avitinvestmentauthority2@gmail.com for more details.
Looking forward hearing from you soonest.
Yours truly,
Mrs Rose Williams
(Personal Assistant)
Avit Development Investment Authority(ADIA)
501 Avenue Montaigne,75008 Paris-France
Paris-France.Avit Development Investment Authority (ADIA)

Gl-Bp said...

Dear Customers,

Business-Capital-Experts
We are currently funding for Business start-up, business developments, business expansion, Project and we also offer working Capital loan ILM.) Ranging from (20,000.00 to 10,Million Maximum IM-Euro,Usd,Pounds) Our funding sources specialize in creative solutions to meet your needs. We satisfy our customers’ financial needs and help them succeed financially. With Fast Process and Instant Approval.

@2% interest rate
Flexible repayment
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Email: capitalfundingsolutinfo@gmail.com

Unknown said...


Quirk Loan Offer

To Whom It May Concern

ATTN,

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Position: Manager
Email: skygroupplc@gmail.com
© 2017 SKY GROUP PLC

Unknown said...

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Unknown said...


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Unknown said...


Hi,


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Unknown said...

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Best Regards,

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Unknown said...

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Unknown said...

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We offer a wide range of financial services which includes: Business Planning, Commercial and Development Finance, Properties and Mortgages, Debt Consolidation Loans, Business Loans, Private loans, Home Refinancing Loans with low interest rate at 1.00% per annul for individuals, companies and corporate bodies. Get the best for your family and own your dream home as well with our General Loan scheme. Interested applicants should Contact us via email: PergoCF@cheerful.com ( PergoCF@qualityservice.com ) PergoCF@gmail.com

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We look forward to hear from you ASAP

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willaams said...

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Unknown said...

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PERSONAL INFORMATION:

First Name: ……………………..
Last Name: ………………………..
Contact Address: . …………….
country……………………….
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LOAN INFORMATION …………..
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You can also text :417-279-4235

Osman Ibrahim said...

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Mr. Osman Ibrahim

Osman Ibrahim said...

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willaams said...

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Unknown said...

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Middle name:
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Regards,
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Mrs Rebecca said...

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Your Name: ______________________
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Your task: __________________
The amount of loan needed: ______________
Term of the loan: ____________________
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Mobile Number: ________________
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Dr Purva Pius said...

GENUINE LOAN WITH LOW INTEREST RATE APPLY
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BORROWERS DATA FORM
1)YOUR NAME:_______________
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5)PHONE NUMBER:____________
6)MONTHLY INCOME:__________
7)ADDRESS:_________________
8)PURPOSE:_________________
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10)LOAN DURATION:__________
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12)HAVE YOU APPLIED FOR LOAN BEFORE?

E-mail: (urgentloan22@gmail.com)

Gl-Bp said...

Dear Customers,

Business-Capital-Experts: We are currently funding for Business start-up, business developments, business expansion, Project funding and working Capital ILM.) Ranging from (20,000.00 to 45,000,000.00 Maximum In-Euro,Usd,Pounds) Our funding sources specialize in creative solutions to meet your needs. With Fast Process and Instant Approval.

@2% interest rate
Flexible repayment
1 to 25 years duration
Contact us today
Email: capitalfundingsolutinfo@gmail.com

Alfred Nehemia said...

Good news!! loan seeker !!!

My name is Alfred Daniel Nehemia from bali Indonesia, bread CEO Daniel Bakery, First of all I would say that God should bless Lady jane for introducing me to an honest and lawful lending company so I really believe that you are telling co-workers that I have a good Idea to start my own business because getting a job is not easy so I went to the bank to get a loan (Rp800 million) but they all asked for an advance amount of my loan but the only property I have is a motorcycle. Bike, which makes me feel disappointed

So I search for an online loan company but mostly are scam, I almost lost hope and confidence until I read the article of lady jane but I did not contact Lady jane but read the article so I tried another online search called craigslist. org where I saw a Dangote Loan company ad so I decided to apply and contact lady jane as well

Dangote Loan Company provides loan with interest rate of 2% and not less than Rp20 million

I followed their procedure , gave all that requested and my loan funds was transferred to me without delay

so do not waste your time contact Dangote loan company Via dangotegrouploandepartment@gmail.com

You can also search on google for more information, this is real and very real or contact me also via email at alfreddaniel324@gmail.com and also on BBM: 7AEA8FA5

Unknown said...

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1. Full Name:_________________
2. Phone Number:__________________
3. Country:___________________
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7. Loan Amount Required:___________
8. Duration:__________________
9. Age:_______________________

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WhatsApp: +15186788475

Regards,
Williams Loans.

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Mrs Rebecca said...

Attention

Sir/Madam.
Mega Loan Offer!!!

We offer loan from a minimum amount of 50,000.00 to 20 million Euros,Dollars & Pound-sterling at REBECCA WILLIAMS LOAN FIRM. Are you looking for loans for all kind of purpose,a Business Loan, Personal Loans, Mortgages, Car Loans, Debt Consolidation Loans, Unsecured Loans, Risk capital, etc. ..

You are well-come in the right place Your loan solutions! I am a private lender who lends Individuals and Businesses at a low interest rate and affordable Interest rate of 2%.

*If you are very serious as I am,we will have this transaction concluded with 7 Banking Working days from the date of start. We have Branches and Clearing Houses in some countries like:Turkey Branch,United Kingdom Branch,United States Branch,Japan Branch, Indonesia Branch and South Africa and others,

NOTE: 1 year minimum and 20 years maximum depending on the loan amount you need. Customers should be above the age of 35 This loan transaction is
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Thank you.

Unknown said...

LOAN OFFER LOAN OFFER

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Have you been searching for a legitimate lender? Search no more as am here to give you a life time solution, my loan program is designed to help people in need of financial assistance, I offer business loan, car loan, housing loan,
Real estate loans, personal loans and such more if interested contact me via email at
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WhatsApp me at +1(386) 466-4650

Standard Online Finance said...

Are you a business man or woman? Do you need funds to start up your own business? Do you need loan to settle your debt or pay off your bills or start a nice business? Do you need funds to finance your project? We Offers guaranteed loan services of any amount and to any part of the world for (Individuals, Companies, Realtor and Corporate Bodies) at our superb interest rate of 3%. For application and more information send replies to the following E-mail address: standardonlineinvestment@gmail.com
Thanks and look forward to your prompt reply.
Regards,
Muqse

Anonymous said...

Hello Everybody,
My name is Mrs Sharon Sim. I live in Singapore and i am a happy woman today? and i told my self that any lender that rescue my family from our poor situation, i will refer any person that is looking for loan to him, he gave me happiness to me and my family, i was in need of a loan of $250,000.00 to start my life all over as i am a single mother with 3 kids I met this honest and GOD fearing man loan lender that help me with a loan of $250,000.00 SG. Dollar, he is a GOD fearing man, if you are in need of loan and you will pay back the loan please contact him tell him that is Mrs Sharon, that refer you to him. contact Dr Purva Pius, call/whats-App Contact Number +918929509036 via email:(urgentloan22@gmail.com) Thank you.

Анна Стасюк said...


Hello Everybody, I live in Singapore and i am a happy woman today? and i told my self that any lender that rescue my family from our poor situation, i will refer any person that is looking for loan to him, he gave me happiness to me and my family, i was in need of a loan of $20, 000.00 to start my life all over as i am a single mother with 3 kids I met this honest and GOD fearing man loan lender that help me with a loan of $20, 000.00 Dollar, he is a GOD fearing man, if you are in need of loan and you will pay back the loan please contact him tell him that is Mrs Sharon, that refer you to him. contact via email:(challotloan@gmail.com) Thank you.