Saturday, August 23, 2008

Am I a bear now?

I'm back, after take 11/2 day off. I have been reading very little about financial news, blogs, newspaper etc this week. Not that I have turned very bearish but I had very punishing schedules and just too exhausted.

I have just came back on-line a bit more seriously an hour ago. Just got off from iCapital website. iCapital admitted that they can be wrong. The cannot be 100% right. But having a comprehensive framework is important. The question is this, if you can tell when your adviser is right or wrong, it is also implies that you are quite an expert yourself. Reversely, if you are not an expert, how can you tell your expert is wrong? If you need a hacker to catch another hacker.

My view: if you are not an expert, you should have diversified enough. Don't be intimidated by Warren Buffet when he said diversification is for bird. Yes, if we are not an expert, just admit we are a bird, so what!

Let’s take a better-managed fund like Public Small Cap with proven track record for example. Their top 5 holdings account for 25%, the rest of 75% probably distributed among 40-50 stocks. This means 1-2% of NAV for the rest.

After browsed through other funds managed by Public Mutual, their top 5 have not been exceeding 30%.

Please also read my other post on position sizing.

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