Is life unfair ?

After completed my weekend readings - mostly bad news - I feel like reaching for some Prozac. Many negative calls - S & P will go down to 500 - 600 points, Dow will decline to 7,000, Hang Seng will go down the drain to 13,000(by iCapital!?), KLCI to 800, STI to 1850, etc.

One question keeps ringing, what is the bottom for Asian markets? Since we are not the culprits of this mess why we have to suffer this much? Is life unfair? Well it went up a lot too - so it is a little payback time.

Did a very quick and dirty exercise, picked two crisis - (i) Asian crisis which was our fault (ii) Dot-com bubble bubble bust which was not our fault. I picked two North East Asia markets and two from South East Asia. Simple average shows market declined by 61% (peak-trough) in Asia financial crisis and 49% in dot.com bubble. I extrapolated possibilities of how far the market can go down based on these two averages from peak. (click below table to see results)



Singapore and Hong Kong markets have more or less in the ballpark bottom but another 15-20% downside for Korea and Malaysia markets. Am I over-simplify things? Well just a number game, don't take this too seriously. Most nice looking charts and analysis by highly paid analysts are crappy and wrong anyway. Have a nice day!