Dealing with regrets

When I first mentioned about putting money into AmPrecious Metals Fund, a fund that investing in major gold mining corporations. The fund has shot up by almost 11% (NAV 2/1/09 0.7074 vs 13/2/09 0.7856). The immediate reaction was like ERGH!!!!!!!.......... big regret. If I am talking to my psychologist, I will tell him that (i) go and buy regardless of price or original thesis of delaying pruchase (ii) convince myself that my original thesis was wrong because the market told me so (iii) shun precious metals investment for the rest of my life.

I remember a movie line: it is not difficult to do the right thing but it is difficult to know what is right.

Blogging is good because it will force me to analyze my thoughts and emotions systematically to arrive at logical conclusion. My original thesis of waiting for a deep correction was gold was going up driven by fear and not by demand. If the fear disipates, the price can fall very quickly as they start chasing more risky assets. Most of the money flow into ETF which typically going long only which is Deja Vu, remember, speculative Index fund driving oil price higher(crap - many will protest). It may be hurting the commercial buyers to cover shorts but I am not sure who will the real winner, under this environment, I am not sure what will be the damage to the real demand in jewelry. It could be ugly if these long funds unwind.

I believe it will eventually soar but entry timing is very tricky. My regret will run deeper if I see the value of the fund continue to soar but sticking my original thesis - wait - for the price to come to me rather than chasing the price, is what my left brain is telling me now.