Nice Movie

I sat down patiently in front of my computer yesterday, waited for the American unemployment data. Earlier of this week, I read some where on the Internet that big Wall Street firms advised their clients to sell ahead of this ugly report but I can't find that source again. I thought this must be very ugly - perhaps 8-9% and paving the way to go up all the way to more than 10% which is an absolutely critical psychological threshold that must not be broken. You just cannot let people see double digit unemployment because every spirit will be broken and everybody will throw in towels.

When it came in around 7.6%, I watched a bit more, switched off my computer and went to bed. You know what that mean, right? When I turned on my computer again this morning, I smiled because it must be a tough day for those to gamble it will go down.

All eyes will be on Obama now. I like the way he kicked butts on Thursday.

“I welcome this debate, but we are not going to get relief by turning back to the same policies that for the last eight years doubled the national debt and threw our economy into a tailspin,” said President Obama – sounding more like Candidate Obama than at any time since he took the oath of office less than a month ago.

"What do you think a stimulus is?" Obama asked incredulously. "It’s spending — that's the whole point! Seriously.”

“I found this national debt, doubled, wrapped in a big bow waiting for me as I stepped into the Oval Office.”

“Fired up?” he asked the Democratic lawmakers. “Ready to go!” a group of them shouted back.

Now that we have sparks, but do we have enough fuels for the rally? I listened to the market sound bites, most bets on two catalysts:-

1. China

2. Technology





If you look at the charts, you will noticed that Shanghai stock market appears to bottom out and staging a rally since December which led me post on Hong Kong bull run(I believe most will think I was a nut). I hear that noises from the US big players begin to talk more of this in the last few weeks. I hope China will be that leader to lead us out of this bear market. You can also see Emerging Market ETF outperformed the US market.

Secondly, over the last week or so, Nasdaq keep defying gravity when there were whole batches of bad news. Even Marc Faber started to talk favorably about Intel, Microsoft, Oracle and etc, wow, the very man shorted tech bubble falls in love with technology???!!!. George Soros also owns Nasdaq index but he jumped in much earlier.

The last one that I want talk about is earning. Most people look at how bad it falls. But I like to look at how fast and how high it can recover. If you look the chart, you will notice earning will double in a short time when it recovers but it also will crash much faster. The earning cycles have gone very erratic.



(click all images to enlarge)