Saturday, February 21, 2009

Nationalize or not to nationalize?



Among noises over the last few days, it is seems that the topic of nationalization has the greatest impact to market movement. Over the last one to two weeks, gold price has been practically moving in an opposing locked step with financial stocks. Gold crossed $ 1,000 level at the peak of people dumping financial stocks. When White House trying to talk down the nationalization, financial stocks start to soar and gold price retreated. The market also U-turned from DJIA breaching 7,200 level.

Nationalization means the value of shareholders will go down to close to zero! That's why they are so afraid. Though some statements were helpful but the market is going to change their minds very soon because there has been no good answer given as of how they are going to fix the toxic assets if banks were to remain in private hands.

I am no expert in these stuffs, common sense tells me too many cooks spoil the broth. To have meaningful restructuring and forceful actions you must have only one BOSS. That leads to only two choices (1) GOOD BANK, BAD BANK OR (2) NATIONALIZATION. Other routes will only leave the market with long grief and in miseries.

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