Am I getting complacent?

After I made a U turn from bearish to bullish sometime in March '09, commodities, emerging market and equities continue to race ahead. There are people caution us not to get complacent. Am I getting complacent? It's always good to check our thinking and mood, never ever trust yourself. The way I do self examination is looking at facts honestly.


(Click on the chart to enlarge)

My simple reason was people are still fearful, instituition pros are still fearful though not overly feaful. Their asset allocation for equities have not reached 70-80% which is an excellent time to short stock. Cash level has not reached typical complacent level yet.

My past experience taught me I must buy when there is blood on the street. The second important lesson is continue to buy if I can find cheap stock(after Index goes up quite a bit(20% or more from bottom) though it is getting harder. The final stage, which is most dangerous stage when everyone is talking about stocks. If you have friends that are conservative and not buying stock now but they suddenly feel a lot more secure getting into buying stock, talking about PE 15 - 18 X is cheap and etc, that is the time we got to be very worried.