Budget comments

Malaysia boleh. We can achieve 5-6% GDP growth in 2012, our PM said.

Malaysia boleh. As your responsible gomen, we will cut our defit to 4.7% of GDP. Errr.........How?



We keep our expenditure roughly the same like this year and raise our revenue assumption and GDP growth. What if they are wrong? Despite of having a good year for 2011, yet our deficits have gone up to 5.5%. I believe 2012 deficit will stay at elevated level of 5-6%.

I won't forget his promise to reduce our budget deficit by 50% by 2015 when he took over the PM office. 2.8% he promised. It's fast approach 3 years. Are you still on track, Mr. PM? Or you wish I don't have such a good memory?

Our hero Teh Hong Piow echoed that GDP growth of 5-6% is achievable. Come on Dato. I believe you must be reading canned script prepared by our gomen. You just want to do a bit of PR sucking up to the gomen. If this is true, you make me feel less worry. If not, my knees are growing weak. How can I count on you to take care of Public Bank when you talk like that one? Sell Public Bank, buy Hong Leong is increasingly getting louder to me now.

Read the rest here

http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/20111008002811/Article/index_html

On a second thought, may be it is good to let the gomen to have their own delusions. When the slow down is here. And they are in the middle of election. The heat of discontent will add more tailwind to already growing momentum for opposition party to take over. That will be game over for our gomen.

Portfolio Update -- Correction

Double Entry accounting is one of the greatest invention of mankind. It's a great way of recording transactions and can detect our slightest mistakes, up to decimal points.

I felt very strange when I looked at my earlier scorecard. How come my book value was 50 k but but my portfolio gain was only 3 k plus. It's either I overstated my assets or I under-recorded my investment gains. Tried to trace my records but finally gave up. I resorted to rebuild the whole portfolio from ground up by using old fashion way -- Double Entry. Finally got the book balanced. See this trial balance. A lot of works but worth it. Very satisfied now.



Since it's only involving a few simple accounts, I can do it with Excel. If I can get accounting software will be great but I think it's quite costly.



Never I anticipated this simple tracking has evolved into more and more complex as time grow. Not sure how my cash was overstated by almost 7k. Luckily the rest of the stuffs were correct. My cash now stood at 33 k.

Portfolio Update - October 2011

Added $888 saving for October 2011.

Okay, it's time to tally score. My portfolio stood at 8% gain through 6 October 2011. Cash is now around $40,000 on book value of $51,000. Almost 80% cash. The remaining stocks are still up for sales and hopefully I can salvage some of these dogs during counter rally.

The big pressure now is how to deploy $ 40,000 cash. My goal is get a 25% return on this $ 40,000 cash. This will put my portfolio back on track to achieve 10% return per annum. I hope my readers will understand me better now. It's no point to dwell in a decision I made. Yeah, looks pretty stupid when I got trapped by the market turnaround after hitting a new low. When the trigger alarmed, I have to act mean I have to act no matter how stupid I look. I have a plan and I have to stick with the plan.

The mission now is to get a 25% return on $40,000. I still need to wait very patiently before swinging my bat.

Just a thought

Just leave you this thought today:

Just because we have sold some stocks, we should not wish the bear market is here.

Just because we have bought some stocks, we wish the bull market is here.

Financial market is not a place to prove we are right or wrong.

Neither is a place to prove we are macho.

It's a place to make money.

KLCI 1361. Sold Many Stocks

I am travelling this week. The timing has been very, well what shall I say ? Very untimely. When I woke up this morning, I saw the DJI already flashed red. I knew I have to do some selling today. I think the stock markets around the world are breaking down. It has been a long time that I don't have this discomfort level. I believe selling wave is brewing.

I sold these stocks to raise cash.

KSL 1,500 shares @ 1.31

Boustead 1,000 shares @ 4.84

BAT 100 shares @ 44.12

Amway 500 shares @ 8.55

iCapital 4,000 shares @ 1.98

SOP 1,000 shares @ 3.85

Tried to sell these stocks today but the prices are not good/poor liquidity......PIE, CIMBX25, MUI and EAH. Already lining up for sale.

Will update more over the weekend.

All bets are off

The DJIA broke below previous low 10,719. All bets are off.

Selling is inevitable. Take care.

V market.

The only certainty in the market is V.

V for volatility.

I follow Mark Hulbert column regularly.

In his latest write up he discovered a very unusual phenomena.

Since 1958, dividend yield of DJI has never gone below 10-treasury yield. Since 2008-2009 financial crisis, this is the second time dividend yield is higher than 10-yr treasury yield.

This phenomena was a norm from 1929 crash to 1957. The market volatility was a lot higher prior to 1958 because there was persistent memories of Great Depression, two world wars, etc…… Investors are/were demanding for a lot higher dividend yield during high volatility period.

If you want to read this article, click here

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/market-undergoing-huge-change-2011-09-30?link=home_carousel

After read this article, it prompted me to consider the following strategies:

1. Make friend with volatility. Buy on support and sell on resistant.

2. Never fully invested. I am contemplating to raise cash for my Turtle portfolio(long term portfolio). Cash will not earn me money but when opportunities arise, it can be very useful.

3. Buy high dividend yield stocks. These companies preferably make things that people use everyday.

4. Invest in hard assets but invest sparingly in property counters.

5. When commodities stocks are depressed, don’t be gun shy, pull out some money and BUY!