There were 9 bear markets since 1950 with various durations, some as short as 101 days but some as a long as 929 days. For 67% of the times, bear market coincided with recessions. When bear markets coincided with recessions, bear market arrived first. The bad news is there were incidences bear markets persisted even though the recessions were over.
The S & P 500 index declined as mild as 21% to the extreme of 49% when bear markets exceeded 300 days durations.
Many of the bear markets coincided with the housing recessions. I cannot find data prior to 70s, based available data, I observed severe housing corrections also coincided with long dark bear markets in 1968, 1973 and 1980(see SAAR chart). In year 2000, we have different problem that was the Technology Bubble burst. The steep fall on SAAR since 2006 but global stock markets keep breaking new highs, is a bit unusual, because we are still talking whether bears are hugging everyone ---- scarieeeeeee! OR calm before the storm OR this time is different(the most expensive 4 letters word)!
Only 33% of the bear markets happened without a recession, the durations were short, in the range of 104 to 240 days.
No wonders, most of the investors and speculators are running for hiding. 3 months Treasury bill yield has been plunging like shit.
The market peaked on 31 October 2007, we are now 109 days from that peak. With credit implosion and housing recession, how much more to fall?
Some says this could be as bad as 1929! Well I will have to wait until next weekend to spend more time thinking, is this going to be as bad as they thought. Can I listen to a BULISH case???????
God, I hate Monday. Oh no, I am excited, big sales are coming!
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