It's Ah-Beng and Ah-Kiong Show again

Ah-Beng : Wow, S & P crossed 1,000 points this week, some guys tried to test the floor before pouring in more money-leh.

Ah-Kiong : How do you test the floor ?

Ah-Beng : Meaning whether got buyers out there or not-loh. To find out is quite simple, just sell and see whether sell orders can go through very easily or not-loh.

Ah-Kiong : O like that one-ar. Lai, give me some more analysis, what do you think of our Bursa Malaysia, can "porform" or not?

Ah-Beng : We are at a very interesting juncture, simply because facts have changed quite a bit at the external fronts.

Ah-Kiong : What do you mean ? You mean China-ar, Nasdaq-ar or US $ ?

Ah-Beng : Something like that-lah. The story line is changing forcing people re-write their scripts. Sooner or later, people are going to be convinced that the US recession is going to end. The next question is : what is the growth rate, the easy one is to rule out 3% growth. If it's not 3%, it will be between 0% - 2%, what are the implications? Will money flow back to the US or getting worse?

Ah-Kiong : I know-lah, you see in the short-term, people tend to over-react. They don't care whether it is going to 0%, 2% or 3%. Wa very respect Sifu Richard Russell, he said

What are we really doing? Are we dealing with the stock market or are we dealing with the background fundamentals? I’m looking at the Bloomberg site, and I read, “Birinyi says S&P may reach 1,050 in current rally.” Again, a question — Who do I listen to, the market or the “experts”? How does Birinyi know how high the S&P is fated to rise? Then on another Bloomberg spot I read, “S&P 500 tops 1,000 for the first time in nine months.” And what does that tell us about the future of the market? Unfortunately, not a damn thing. One thing I’ve learned after 50 years in this business is that a trend will continue in force until that trend ends — no further, no less. That’s a truism, but unfortunately, I don’t know anyone who can tell us how high a trend will carry or when a trend will end. If an “expert” wants a little publicity, he can make some damn fool statement that can’t be verified. If the statement is bullish and it proves to be wrong, well, nobody will complain. Wall Street’s business is distributing merchandise to the public, and every optimistic statement or bullish prediction helps. So the Street never complains when bullish predictions don’t pan out. At least the “expert” ventured a guess, and so what if he proves to be wrong as he usually will be? Nobody’s keeping tabs on him or her.

Ah-Beng : OK, Wa surrender, you really street smart.

Ah-Kiong : Don't be like that ma, tell me about China. Everyone seems to be screaming -- "bobble", "bobble" like Spa Jaguzhi

Ah-Beng : This is a tough one, do or don't do also mati one. If they maintain loose monetary policy, asset bubble is unavoidable especially free float is just too small because Chinese gomen hold a big chunk of the shares. If they tighten, then the "ecolomy" will slow down, people sure go to Tianamen again. But looking at this chart, I rather worry about Taiwan, Australia and etc than China(market capitalization to GDP which one of Warren Buffett's favorite tools).

Ah-Kiong : What if the world "ecolomy" really recovers ? Can they tighten ?

Ah-Beng : That's why I think the market will take some time to sort out, what is what-lar!

Ah-Kiong : Peng-yu, don't try to make grandmother statement OK!

Ah-Beng : Bottom line, I think people will take some money off the tables -- rich valuation emerging markets should find it difficult to continue to charge ahead(another 10% consider very good) but laggards(Malaysia for example) will have some rooms to move up. Laggards developed markets should continue to catch up in the next few months.

Ah-Kiong : "Tiok um tiok"(Correct or not), don't bluff me lar, I am a trader you know. KLCI will have a tough time to overcome the monster 1,200 resistance. This is really a very "suui"(unlucky) number you.

Ah-Beng : That's my view, any how I am a stock picker, it don't really bother me that much.

Ah-Kiong : Nope, when the whole market players take too much chicken legs, they are not steady, profit taking can turn into bloody ugly scene you know!? Stock picker also will "lau sai"(diarrhea)

Ah-Beng : Amoi ! siu loi(Kira). Good luck my friend, really nice talking to you unfortunately going no where.

A note from producer: Since China-man English or Phua-Chu-Kang English is embarrassing our Malaysian government(The producer is confident or very sure that the standard will go up with us going back to Bahasa for Math and Science), with deep regret, the producer will stop production of Ah-Beng and Ah-Kiong show. (Psst, is there a gun pointing at your head now?)