Saturday, August 15, 2009

Putting three Dr. Dooms together

Let me put all the three Dr. Dooms together this weekend: Bob Prechter, Marc Faber, Roubini.
Bob first - interesting take away, the US dollar hits a bottom because of extreme pessimism.



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Marc Faber has a similar view that the US dollar hitting a bottom, he warns emerging markets will be vulnerable.

INTERNATIONAL. Marc Faber the Swiss fund manager and Gloom Boom & Doom editor said a period of weak equities and rising dollar is likely to follow the strong rally since March.

Speaking to CNBC on Wednesday, Faber said: "Between 2002 and 2007 we had a bull market in assets and stocks and a weak dollar while in 2008 the opposite was true. This year, we bottomed out on the S&P 500 index but the dollar was weak."

"I expect now for the next couple of months a period of a recovering dollar and weak assets," Faber said.

The dollar will strengthen not because the US economy is the best, but because it is the least cyclical. "A strong dollar means global liquidity tightening."

As liquidity tightens, growth will begin to disappoint, and 'emerging markets will become vulnerable, especially after being a favorite of momentum investors who may flee the trade,' said Faber

The worse the global economy, the more stocks could go up, Faber says, because the world’s central bankers have become nothing more than money printers.

Nonetheless, even with slower economic growth, 'markets may still go up given that there are a number of worldwide central bankers who are nothing more than money printers and continue to feel the need to intervene when prices go down, except for crude oil.'

“They’re dangerous to the health of the global economy,” Faber says

http://www.bi-me.com/main.php?id=39614&t=1&c=62&cg=4&mset=




At the end of the three interviews, I think they are nervous but not extremely pessimistic on the short term but long term outlook remains unchanged. Correction is inevitable.

I have been trying to find some suitable words to express what is inside my head to describe the investing environment. The closest words come to my mind will be "Cyclical", 'Turbulent", a few years up follow by sharp downturn. That does not mean that we have to time the market all the time, it will be revealed in the form of valuation "cheapness". My strategy will be buying at that those cheap level and hanging on to the ride and sell it when it's reaches a level of madness. When I talk about people's bullishness or keeping an eye on liquidity, is not timing to buy but timing to exit. The only reason a person should get excited during rising price when almost fully invested is looking to sell. Hope this will add clarity and help my reader to understand my postings context better.

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