Kopitiam Stock Market Talk

Ah Beng: Peng-yu, long time no see-lar. Wa belanja chiak Kopi. How's business? 

Ah-Kiong : Business like that lah! Hallo, Kopi-O noh-auw(2 cups). Ah Beng, got stock tips or not, wa really beh-tahan with FD of 2.75%. My broker call me, he said now is the good time to enter leh! Resort can buy-ah? I am really a long term investor, Tejari can buy-ah? Crude oil very solid leh, KNM can buy-ah? Rumania sure cannot lose money one. Handal, the shoe maker can buy-ah?

Ah Beng: Peng-yu, Handal is a crane maker lah, what lah you. 

Ah-Kiong: Don't care lah, the most important is got volume, I gasak all the top ten volume, 200 lots when the market open then I lari when they move 1 sen, RM 2 k profit one day, chiak beh liow. I just make RM 20 k you know in the last 1-2 months. If continue like that ah, I am thinking to be a full time trader you know. I think I can be easily the top trader in Kuala Kedah.

Ah Beng: Wah, so good one ah. I have been reading blogs, taking LCCI accounting and may be study ABE after I pass my LCCI. 

Ah Kiong: What lar you, so old fashion one. If you follow Warren Buffet, lu kee(go) holand faster-lar! Look at me, after I finis my Civil Engineering, working for 5 year salary only got RM 3 k plus. After deduct everything, mana eh-cukup makan? To make money ah, you must take risk. If you don't take risk, how to be rich?

Ah Beng: They say trading can be very rich but I think I still prefer to put my money in FD lah. I think the fundamental is not so steady lah. Look at this chart that I researched recently.

My personal view, the US market rally is not sustainable. When they realize that the stock price is running way ahead of earnings, unwinding of their positions will trigger risk aversion, then all the emerging markets will kena-lah.

Ah-Kiong: Wah Ah Beng, not bad leh, I think you can apply to be analyst. Making 5 figures. I heard they all drive BMW, even their boss also have to give them face leh. When they say buy, the market will move and when they say sell, the market sure go down one. Very powerful leh.

Ah Beng: Don't laugh at me lah. Wa ada sikit sikit knowledge but could be dangerous. To be honest I think the market really not bad-leh. I watch on the Bloomberg, I heard the US recession already ended. I read somewhere but not sure where, the stock market rally very fierce or strongest 3 months before it ended, you know or not, may be US recession already ended in April or May 2009.

Ah-Kiong: You really not bad leh, I don't have time for all this. All these analysts 9 times prediction, 11 times wrong one may be 2 times correct-lah. Unfortunately I think you wasted too much time lar.

Ah Beng: Peng yu, how can you say like that. Or may be you are right. One of the very bearish guys David Rosenberg, the ex-analyst of Merill Lynch  said this very reluctantly

[T]here is no doubt that after the sharpest downturn in housing, production and employment since the 1930s, that the laws of gravity themselves prevent the economy from any further deterioration. Nothing is going to zero, and there is always the chance that housing sales edge back up towards their demographic levels, auto sales recover to their replacement demand levels (plus GM getting back into the leasing game), and inventories get rebuilt in line with spending levels. The government has its hands in 40% of the economy and when public sector officials can influence how banks can value their assets, how mortgage servicers should be doing their business, who shall fail in the financial industry and who shall not; and when we have a central bank that is not just the lender but the market of last resort, even for RVs, and a government willing to run up its deficit to levels that would have made FDR blush, then perhaps we can end up seeing a recovery occur sooner than we had thought.

I really respect lu, you have very good feeling for the market, no need to read so much but can be so successful.

Ah Kiong: Yah lo!, To be honest-ah, tell me how much money you make out of stock market? Me not bad, may be you should follow me to sit in the broker office. I like to do that so that I can exchange my ideas with other traders. Some of them already have 20 years trading experience you know. These guys are good.

Ah Beng: Tommorw is Monday, I see you there - lau tee fang(old place)!