Tuesday, December 29, 2009

Favorite gurus predict more stock gains

Most of the people mis-understood Marc Faber and labeling him as Dr. Doom. I have been reading his newsletter for a while find that he is a great trader. What I like about him is his ability to read the crowd psychology. He is also a very pragmatic person, he knows when to be bearish and when to turn bullish on certain asset class. He has been screaming that bond is overbought and equities have been oversold--but--economy is screwed!. He has been also calling for a rebound in US dollar even though he has been criticizing Ben Bernanke without mercy.

He also said most of the retail investors lost money because they bought at the precise top and sell at the precise bottom, which is precisely a disaster recipe for investing. They lost money even in what many perceived as save investment class such as bond because buying when everybody is buying!

Faber and Biggs predict there will be another 10% stock & US dollar gain in 2010.

Dec. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Barton Biggs and Marc Faber, who recommended buying stocks in March when investors were dumping them, are again united as they predict gains for U.S. equities and the dollar.

Shares in the largest equity market and the U.S. currency may add 10 percent as economies improve around the world, Biggs of New York-based hedge-fund firm Traxis Partners LP said in a Bloomberg Television interview yesterday. Faber, publisher of the “Gloom Boom & Doom” newsletter, told Bloomberg TV that the dollar may rise 5 percent to 10 percent against the euro while stocks gain, reversing the inverse relationship that existed between March and November.

“History would suggest that after such a severe economic shock like we’ve just had that the odds are that we’re going to have a pretty good burst of growth in 2010, 2011,” Biggs said. “I don’t see any reason why we can’t have a further rally in the dollar and a further rally in stocks. And my guess is that the next move in both could be on the order of 10 percent.”

Biggs, the chief global strategist for Morgan Stanley until 2003, said in a Bloomberg interview on Feb. 18 that the S&P 500 was poised to rise because economic indicators were starting to improve. Biggs reiterated his optimism in the March issue of Newsweek. His bullish bets during the worst of the credit crisis are giving his six-year-old firm its best returns ever.

Faber advised investors to buy U.S. stocks on March 9 when the S&P 500 was at a 12-year low.

Stocks may rise as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is forced to inject more liquidity into the financial system, spurring inflation that prompts investors to shift assets to equities from Treasuries and cash, Hong Kong-based Faber said.

The yield on Treasury 10-year notes has increased 0.64 percentage point this month to 3.84 percent, approaching the seven-month high of 3.95 percent reached in June. The 100 largest taxable U.S. funds returned an annualized 0.06 percent during the past week, according to data compiled by Westborough, Massachusetts-based Crane Data LLC.

“The worst investment will be U.S. Treasuries and cash, which has no return at present,” Faber said. “That money will shift into other assets, and this is the one reason that I am moderately positive about equities.”


No comments: