Friday, December 11, 2009

Santa Rally -- A Myth or Fact?

Good things normally happen during Christmas because Santa will be in town, a myth or truth? My curiousity led me to dig through the numbers all the way back to 1993 of KLCI value comparing the 1st trading day of December to mid of December and last day of December. Here are the numbers:

A couple of obervations:

If you buy on the 1st day of December, you must be discouraged because you have been waiting for Santa, yet he is not here. 38% of the time, your investment will go down in value when you held through middle of the month. If you feel discourage and feeling like throwing in a towel. Don't.

That is because if you have the courage to hold till end of the year, 94% of the time, the value of your investment will go up by an average of 3.4%. I think to buy around this time frame is a high probability event.

Assuming you have bought at the wrong time, i.e. beginning of the month, you still have 81% of the chance to make 4.74%.

Just hang in there, Santa is coming to town.


tohff7 said...

window dressing activities by fund managers =/

山下聖人 said...

not really by fund managers, probably the glc or individual investors? perhaps most of the fund managers has went overseas for hoildays