Thursday, December 8, 2011

Myth of General Elections and Stock Market

The general belief among the

uncle--untie--abang--adik--kakak--punters--investors is

The Stock Market Will Go Up because the government is pumping in money.

When I went back to the last three elections, the data says otherwise. The government is generally wanting to call for a GE after the market peaked out from a bottom recovery.

In 1999, one year after the big wash of 1997/1998 financial crisis. GE was called after some signs of market recovery exhaustion.

2004 GE was called after exhaustion of 2001 dot com bust recovery.

2008 was unique, Pak Lah was kind of unseated by Dr. M from behind the scene. He was lucky because the sub-prime was still brewing nicely. Najib got the shits.

Now we have European crisis and a slow down in China, I do not think the trend is going to be up anytime soon.

The last 3 - 6 months to GEs were generally on a down trend, NOT UP.

It's a bit of fortune telling this morning.

I will only be back to post on next Monday. Have a nice day/weekend ahead.

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