Tuesday, April 10, 2012

The market is finally waking up

The US stock market indexes declined for almost 1% overnight realizing their expectations were too high. Word like real shock is finally surfacing on web pages. Was March job growth of 120 k marking the reversal of a trend? Most expect it to be around 200 k? People begin to question the last few months strong job numbers were just a temporary overshoot from extreme tightening conditions in 2008-2009?

The market participants are finally coming to their sense slowly but still in hang over mood begin to question topics such as:

1. Is job growth consistent with GDP growth? http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20120326a.htm

What if, April job number coming is even smaller like less than 100 k or shocking 0?

2. Will profit growth stall? http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-09/profit-growth-stalls-as-european-slump-hampers-recovery.html

Companies in S & P indexes derive 40% of their earnings from Europe and Asia Pacific. If Europeans are in recession and China is slowing down? Should we still expect high earnings growth? Are earnings peaking?

3. Should they sell in May and go away?

I begin to feel a little more excited as the buying opportunity should emerge in next 3 to 6 months. I hope I will be able to talk about my shopping list as we progress.

1 comment:

rahul khan said...

I appreciate you.I think also that the market finally waking up.Thank for the post.sell my house