To whom should I listened?

Internet makes it incredibly easy to get information but sometimes so much information makes me giddy. Who should I listened? A more practical question is: can I monetized on the views and information I received? What the hell is the meaning of monetize? Simple term, did you make money? When S&P took off from 666 to 1068, a 60% gain, those stay bearish would have missed out this fantastic gains while people are still arguing a bear rally, a 1929 great bear rally or extended bear rally........... A[t] some point in the future, the market will surely decline, those in bearish camp will surely stand up and tell the world, I told you so.

To monetize idea in the stock market, we got to get two dimensions right - direction of the market and approximately right time/duration which often easier said than done. If one anticipates the market to decline but that direction only happens two years later, can that person says he has foresight? The opportunity cost for a person who gets it right two years later will be extremely high ......... forgoing present two years gains. Worst still some did not short stocks and probably can only be rewarded with highest honor medal but without money.

What am I saying? My definition of right or wrong is simple, if the price does not behave according to my thesis within 3 months, I am wrong. Go back to drawing board and re-examine failure.