Sunday, May 1, 2011

Getting back to business

At the beginning of this week. I raised a question of whether will there be a deep correction coming though the general direction is still up.

The market has a long list of things to worry as they climb the wall of worries. This list looks something like this

The end of QE,

The impact of Japan on supply chain -- inventory prior to the quake is running low now. A number of shut downs are scheduled now.,

Sovereign debts,


Rate hike,


Of many factors, there's only factor that worries me the most --- oil price. If oil price is breaking through its double top. The price will continue to run to uncharted territory. Can the world withstand US $ 150 per barrel?

The good news though, the crude oil price is climbing but the volume has been declining. That will make it more likely a double top rather than a breakout, at least in the short term. That will allow equity markets to do two things either continue to move up marginally for a while or moving sideways. I'm leaning towards consolidation and sideways for now. I suspect next few months trading sessions will be dull.

No comments: