Managed to squeeze out some time out during this business trip to write down my thoughts before it is disappears.
Ben Bernanke is panic - pumped $ 200 B into the financial system again, is he afraid that the US economy will enter into a very long recession like Japan when the twin bubbles busted in the early 90s? When Japanese twin bubble busted - equity and property - they were stuck in more than decades of recessions and deflations. Many argued that the market forces taken too long to work out the excesses, free market did not work! Japanese should have loosened their monetary policy right after the party was over.
So, it is a choice of long deflation or ignition of super inflation? Looks like they have chosen the later and hoping raise interest rate to kill it off down the road. They are afraid of liquidity trap just like the era of great depression where John Maynard Keynes was proposing to put so much liquidity in people's hands: to set them free. Will it work? I would say I pity him, it is not a choice of good or better but worse and worst, uglier and the ugliest. Greedy bankers have screwed up big time, Ben is doing the s*** cleaning now, is that his job?
I would stay put for a while to see how things are going. Don't try to get hands itchy even though I have a little bit of money in hands. More US and European banking write-downs are coming!
Thursday, March 13, 2008
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