Friday, March 14, 2008

Stuck in the airport

This is one of the things that I hate during traveling, stuck in the airport due to flight delayed.......will have to figure out what to do for next 4 hours.

I have been wondering how I manage to stay as a part time investor, a part time blogger and a full time job to run. Being a part time investor, I really could not monitor my investment activities at all, if the markets were to crash today, I will not be able react either on the sell or buy side. How will one survive managing own money without picked pocket by the pros?

For example, I thought Hong Kong market was about to rally in my previous post, the market tanked instead, possibly selling by US pros to cover shorts when Ben pumped $ 200 B into financial systems, followed by Flu scare and Shanghai Index dipped below 4,000 points.

Thinking back, it will not be that hard after all. Just sit and wait for the big boys to screw up, screw up big time. Wait for them to defeat themselves. Wait for their boss(clients) fire them. Wait for everyone to redeem their funds. Looking back, lack of time, lack of resources, lack of everything is an advantage after all.

The market has a few more unfinished agenda. Think about what will strong Yen do to trade carry. Ask ourselves what if the Chinese need to raise interest again 2-3%to fight inflation - what if China GDP growth drop to 6 - 8% instead of 9 - 10%. Have we ever imagine, what if US inflation rate running into 10%? Credit crunch is still on going. US recession has not been declared. 2009 is the first year of a new president term, money pumping will slow down. Olympic game is over in 2009, will the Chinese infrastrucure spending slow down? What if copper and aluminium price collapse? I can keep firing million of questions, can you build a model to discount all possibilities and forecast future for me?

The most important of all, actually, I am still waiting for front page newspaper to declare the death of equities. Sound depressing? No, I am waiting to strike and go for a home run!

When I need to get out from a market or stock, I need to sell first and ask question later. However, if I need to buy, I need to ask a lot of questions. Sleep over those questions a few days, months, may be years ( Just kidding on the last part)

Thank you for listening, this help me to kill some time.

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