Tuesday, March 11, 2008

Post-Election: Sell Down - Day 1



Most get their predictions right today, losing 80-100 points. Looking at top volume price actions, one can see clearly it is repricing of risks(some are real, some are not) and not stock market collapse. It can be categorized into the following if we like to break into more systematic themes.

(i) suspected politically linked construction stocks (Gamuda, MRCB, etc,)

(ii) inflation sensitive stocks that losing pricing power like Tenaga,

(ii) foreign investors exposure reduction like IOI Corp, Sime Darby, AirAsia, SP Setia, SupuraCrest, Commerce, Public Bank, Bursa, etc,

(iv) so call non-compliance to Islamic practice stocks like Genting, Resort, Magnum, etc

(v) sympathy selling

The market are scratching their heads whether Malaysia business environment will be as stable as before. Will the market losing the premium factor? They are not sure whether the environment will still be pro-business.

Since liquidity is not an issue for us ( meaning we do not need to buy in a big block), do not rush to buy yet, take a step back and relax. Clear our heads to find out who have wrongly sold their stocks. We want to sell back to them when they found that they were wrong.

Important question to ask ourselves, have the fundamentals changed? Has CPO price collapsed? Will they impose unfavorable gambling taxes? Will they close down casinos? Is PAS ruling the country? Will lesser houses be build? Just shut the world, lock ourself in a quiet room, we will find the answer what to buy. Good luck.

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