It has been a while I did not comment on the "markets". My regular readers begin to feel bored with a series of "lectures" on Buffett, Munger and Graham. So, let's do it for the sake of fun - predicting the future. Don't put down real money after reading this post.
There've been signs of the stock markets around the world are getting a bit tired. Some are looking to short S & P 500 around 1450. Correcting to 1414 while I'm writing this. I was a bit unsure whether it is right to call it a bear market rally when they have never dropped 20% from the top. If this is similar to 1973-1974, next 6 - 9 months are gone!
Hong Kong is testing downside - probably heading to 22,000 and there about. KLCI is a bit difficult to read - we have plantation stocks to support but on the other hand we have some political uncertainty help to pull the bull's legs. For KLCI to rally another 8-9% i.e. going to 1400 is a heavy lifting job especially many of non-plantation heavyweights have stones tied to their legs, how far and fast can they run?
Oil is spiking to almost $ 130. Inflation expectation is rising which is more dangerous than actual inflation number itself. Once people feels like they are trapped in inflation, small guys feel the need to hedge inflation. The big guys will supply it. In Malaysia, you can hear in the radio in your car, Now everyone can invest in commodities. If all think alike - commodity seems to be heading to a path of least resistance. There you go, the vicious cycle will feed itself. Some says the cycle will run another 1.5-2 more years before massive corrections - do you trust this crap?
For food and energy security, I am not sure international conflicts will escalate. If you have wars, good for commodities again - very bad news for stocks. We have been enjoying relative a long period of peace, low interest, low inflation for a while. Things might change. Soros said forget about the day of fast creations of wealth, we might run into cycle of wealth destructions.
Long term bear will never make money. Don't be too sober over life. Enjoy every moment you have, money is not everything but everything is money. You can choose to own lesser things.
Just keep enough cash in the pocket, be ready when the opportunity comes. For Turtle is simple, Parkson will make my day if it comes down to around $ 6.00 or FBM30etf around $ 7.90.
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These are the points that turtles would not bother:
, , I was a bit unsure whether it is right to call it a bear market rally when they have never dropped 20% from the top. If this is similar to 1973-1974, next 6 - 9 months are gone! , , - Turtle never predict. Turtles react to price only.
, , KLCI is a bit difficult to read - we have plantation stocks to support but on the other hand we have some political uncertainty help to pull the bull's legs. , , - turtles never bother about 'funny matters' (fundamentals).
, , For Turtle is simple, Parkson will make my day if it comes down to around $ 6.00 or FBM30etf around $ 7.90. , , - Turtles trader definitely cannot take it as turtles buy high and sell low.Besides, turtles react to price, not prediction.
I apologized for create some noise with your posting. However, I hope you understand that I am talking with the 'turtle' sense which I am very proud of all the while. So, if I am not welcome to comment, do let me know. No offend and I am all right with that. Cheers!
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