Saturday, May 24, 2008

Gennie out of bottle - have you changed, Turtle?

Just to publish a reader's comment in case there are similar thoughts.

MaxTrend said...

These are the points that turtles would not bother:

, , I was a bit unsure whether it is right to call it a bear market rally when they have never dropped 20% from the top. If this is similar to 1973-1974, next 6 - 9 months are gone! , , - Turtle never predict. Turtles react to price only.

My comment

Prediction? Not my cup of tea. There are some people use analog technique by over-lapping certain past price trend to determine the length and height or depth of market rise and fall. Some guys predicted 1987 crash based on this technique. 1987 and 1929 crash were identical when you overlap the two periods.

Based on the similar technique of overlapping the current price trend, looks very similar to that 1974 bear market, corrected from top, rally powerfully and bottomed-out in 6 - 9 months later. Based on 1974 bear market, the market did rally quite powerfully after a while and eventually new lows were made.

Many people are quite complacent thinking March 18 was the bottom. That's why Turtle leave a room of possibility of people can be panic and sell shares again. That is the good time to buy at even cheaper price.

I don't really care whether this will happen or not, as long as price is right, I will buy but try not to fully invested, keep some money in case of big buying opportunity shows up.

, , KLCI is a bit difficult to read - we have plantation stocks to support but on the other hand we have some political uncertainty help to pull the bull's legs. , , - turtles never bother about 'funny matters' (fundamentals).

My Comment

Most of you will notice I am constantly commenting and writing a lot of "funny stuffs" which typically a value investor will not do. These "funny stuffs" range from politics, economy, treasury, commodities, what big boys say, etc. These stuffs are for traders and hedge fund fellas to read general investing moods.

The comments were my best educated guess what is on the minds of investors. For now, KLCI fluctuations is kind of neutral, people will continue to trade and at the same time will be cautious. So patience is required, wait for a real negative catalyst to catch them off-guard, giving up hope and sell irrationally.

Tracking these events is to enable Turtle to read how crazy is Mr. Market's mind.

, , For Turtle is simple, Parkson will make my day if it comes down to around $ 6.00 or FBM30etf around $ 7.90. , , - Turtles trader definitely cannot take it as turtles buy high and sell low.Besides, turtles react to price, not prediction.

My comment
Right, those are my target buying price that Turtle perceives as bargains. I'm sorry for those who managed to buy at around $ 6.00 for Parkson, when it comes down again make you feel no paper gains. Take it as another round of buy offer if you like it.

I apologized for create some noise with your posting. However, I hope you understand that I am talking with the 'turtle' sense which I am very proud of all the while. So, if I am not welcome to comment, do let me know. No offend and I am all right with that. Cheers!

My comment

All comments are welcome - interaction is a great feature of blogging. I might not reply all the comments if I feel a reader already capable of making those decisions or they get the issues crystal clear. If you can ask a right question, you already have 99% of answers, 1% left is confidence issue.

Sometimes I don't answer if I feel a reader need to do a little bit of thinking or taking a bit more extra miles to find some of the very basic stuffs that they should know.

Have a great weekend. Cheers!

PS, Please don't misunderstand that this Turtle is not the Trend Following "turtle traders". The name of Turtle is chosen just to reflect the slow and steady approach in wealth building.

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