Monday, April 12, 2010

Turtle bought 1,000 shares of iCapital

Turtle bought 1,000 shares of iCapital @ 1.79. Why? Simple, I believe in what I published.

If we look into iCapital portfolio, 8 stocks contribute about 86% of its investment. Obviously, the fund manager employs high concentration strategy. Parkson, Astro, KL Kepong, F&N, Petronas Dagangan alone contribute about 69% of investment as at today. I assume there are not too many changes from the information that I extracted from annual report, as his investment strategy is relatively passive. So, I can make things quite predictable. I back tested last week NAV of 2.16 and based on that closing price, this model is lower than its actual NAV by 2%.

Based on today's closing, the NAV stands at around 2.13(2.09*1.02). So it is still selling at deep discount. Perhaps some people are not convinced especially when they see Parkson is under strong profits taking, I would consider the fluctuation as normal. Most of the "China" story is still out of favor because of sideways movement in Hong Kong stock and China stock markets. Once these markets move as people begin to see China is heading to a very soft landing, I would think the NAV can move up to 2.35, when the enthusiams return, at 15% premium, share price will challenge the previous all time high(2.70-2.80)! Phew, thank God that I had taken three beers to make the last statement.

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