Friday, April 2, 2010

Turtle Portfolio Update - April 2010

Apart from setting bullish tone, some readers may be wondering why I did not make any stock specific recommendation. Am I contradicting myself pretending to be bullish while "chicken out" in taking action? Or am I subscribing to sell in May and go away - the months of March - April are typically the most favorable for equities before earning season kicks in?

Firstly, in a bull market, everybody will look incredible smart. There is a good chance of anything ones buy will go up. Anything that analysts recommend will go up too. Anything that your uncle, untie, kopi O kaki recomend will go up too. Normally I try to look stupid rather than smart.

Secondly, sell in May and go away. The macro picture looks brighter each day despite of some news coming from Europe of potential downgrading or bailots and etc. The European countries are typical management running by committee, which could be even slower than Japanese. I believe we are coming to tail end of it. I also believe even sell in May and go away scenario does happens I would think the correction will be shallow 10% max. So, if upside potential is another 10% and downside is 10%, it would really depend on one risk appetite at this juncture.

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