Surrealism art is one of my favorites. The master of this art movement is Salvador Dali. Sigmund Freud and Salvador Dali are mutual admirer of each other works. Dali's arts had successfully exposing our unconscious or subconscious minds, our hidden desires though our conscious mind is trying to suppress it. Suppressing unconscious minds will drive us into the nutty land, ended up in Tanjong Rambutan(mental health hospital) or doing stupid things.
I'm trying to create a bit of surrealism in my blog, you will somehow feel I'm like a person full of self-doubts, self-critique and kicking myself pretty hard. I know I can be wrong -- reading on my commodities chronology posts will give you that feelings. New discovery of facts will change my world view just like seeing a new piece of object giving a new meaning in Dali's art works. I've called plantation an earning bubble when it has a parabolic rise, does it mean it is not a bubble anymore when it does not look like a parabolic?
How do we reconcile reality and theoretical world? Theoretical questions will be a beginning of searching for a reality(realities), thinking and talking vs. doing are two different things. Doing has emotions element.
I'm trying to expose our greatest enemy: ourselves. How would you react when the whole world disagree with you by sending your well researched stock going down - 10%, 25%, 50%, 65? Parkson was my perfect setup to illustrate this point. Will your confidence be shaken? Your response will vary with your stakes - it is different if you have $ 3,000 vs $ 3,000,000,000 bet. It's a different feeling when you practise on your Excel spreadsheet(theoretical) vs. call up your broker to buy or sell some stocks(doing). It's a different feeling when you write stuffs in your private diary(theoretical) vs. airing your dirty laundry in public(doing)--blogging.
We need to allow our unconscious minds to surface -- for some people may not be even actual monetary loss. What is there to lose $ 300 ? How about fear of being ridicule? How about your self-esteem and ego get hurt , how can I'm wrong when I am a successful businessman, doctor, manager, stock broker, etc. I know some people are stubbornly sticking to their guns just because they are afraid their wife or husband will laugh at them. Some will continue to draw to stock market just to prove their mother is wrong, stock market is not a casino, it is son.
After reconcile our conscious and unconscious minds, I'm pretty sure you will make a lot more rational decision. For example, the whole world is reading my well documented reasons of buying Parkson, will I continue to stubbornly sticking to my call if next quarter results drop by 20% due to fundamental reasons? I've defeated this monster inside me(leaving possibilities it could happen), therefore to admit it's a wrong call publicly will not bother me later - I'll more likely to make a rational decision.
Intelligence and being successful in stock markets are not exactly positive correlated. In a research, doctors are one of the worse group of investors in stock market. Don't shoot me, I sometimes read so much that I can't recall where I read it, I will give you the source when I find it in case some of my readers are offended. Accountant will have the highest probability of getting into value trap.
Understand your real reason of irrationality -- if you know the truth, the truth will set you free.
One of the readers asked me whether I'm putting real money in my Turtle portfolio, this is a double edged sword question. A yes answer will make my stock selection more credible or even more convincing. This will lead to complacency on my reader side. Negative answer will cast doubt to my convictions however it will make you stronger. It will strengthen your convictions to buy or to sell. So my answer is no answer. Let me leave this as a mystery, curiosity will not kill you.
If you are feeling more confused and having more questions after reading my blog, I've achieved some of my objectives to set the wheel in motion to stimulate your minds to explore further -- you know why you make money and why you've loss money.
The gap between sanity and insanity is so thin, so is valuation rationality and emotions. Only those can differentiate the gap can make money out of the market.
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If the job has been done correctly when a common stock is purchased, the time to sell it is – almost never. Phillip A. Fisher. I do not agree with it as you have to harvest your shares when they matured and cut, a good share purchased at the top of the bull when the Macro is scuba diving. However I have stubbornly held on to shares, and the practice lowered my yield.
It's normally harder to stick with a winning stock after the price goes up than it is to believe in it after the price goes down. - Peter Lynch. A lot of truth in this.
Theoretical Economics differs to Physical economy which again do not correlates to the Financial economy . They are three different animals.
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