Thursday, June 19, 2008

A Vote of No Confidence against AAB - Is SAPP pulling out?

18 June 2007 must be a bad day to a lot of people. You felt like woke up at the wrong side of the bed. You saw this as soon as you turned on your computer: Big sell-off on Wall Street. You must be kidding me, less than 1% drop considered a big sell off, you ignored the good news: Oil was dropping for the last three days but still around $ 130++, you must be kidding again.

You must be thinking whether today is your perfect setup day to buy on dip. If you have a buy list, congratulation, you must be ready to pounce. When trading day started, it went on perfectly like you predicted, opened below yesterday. People must be scared but you were steady.

10:30 am, you made yourself a cup of coffee, you saw this heading, now you got confused. It has reached your entry point but will it get lower?

You begin to wonder, the next five days going be hell to you; investors and speculators hate uncertainty though this is a very small party. Me too.

After lunch, you looked at your notebook before went back to work. You felt a bit better because the market seems have baked in this bad news -- the day that many speculated finally arrived. If the market can survive this one last excuse trying to bring it down. You figured out this must be an important catalyst to test the bottom, right? You have next five days for people to get really scare, so you decided to wait.

6.30 pm, after work, you checked your PC again, turned to your favorite business newspaper: the Star. You saw this at the very small corner of most viewed.

(click all images for sharper image)

You must be kicking yourself today, you should have bought some shares today because it is seems like nobody cares whether the PM is going to step down or not. Why? The most clicked news was "Doc molested me, claims clinic assistant". SAPP plans to pull out was not even on the top three most viewed.

Feeling regretted, you begin to refer to your chart. You smiled to yourself, it has violated important support of 1,216 the next important test is 1,157. Better still, internet chat room traders calling for 1,000.

You must be getting impatience by now, "what's your point?" you asked. I've just written up a Havard Business School MBA case study at free of charge. Unlike local universities, a typical Havard MBA case study will have no questions, so you just have to figure out by yourself. Have a nice day :)

1 comment:

Raymond said...

One cannot turn a blind eye and assume that the world will be fine when oil price is above 130. Together with food inflation and US slowdown, a storm is in the making.

Expect a lot more bad news from the corporate side, Fedex is the latest casualty. And in Malaysia, political upheaval is still playing out, adding more to the turbulance.

Even though some shares look cheap by historical earnings, I still have reservation to buy big in a hurry at this moment.