Sunday, June 1, 2008

Turtle Portfolio Update - June 08

Received regular saving $ 888 for June. This monthly regular saving is forcing me into a dollar averaging program. I can buy about 3-4 times/year. With an interval of 3 - 4 months, this has helped me to smooth out volatility.

Vietnam stock market turmoils has sent most of the Malaysian stocks with Vietnam operations into a tailspin. Parkson is no exception. This will provide an excellent entry point because their operations are too small to dent Parkson's earnings. It has taken more than 15 years of blood, sweat and tear for Parkson to be sucessful in China, this kind of turmoil is nothing as they have just set foot in Vietnam.

SINGAPORE: The worst may not be over for Vietnam’s stock market, the world’s biggest decliner, as shares resumed declines after a computer breakdown halted trading for three days.

The benchmark VN Index fell 1.5% to 414.10, extending this year’s 55% retreat, after a government report showed prices jumped the most since at least 1992. Morgan Stanley said Vietnam was heading for a “currency crisis” and Fitch Ratings cut its outlook on the country’s debt rating.

The Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange fixed the computer error that interrupted the VN Index’s 17-day tumble, the longest streak since October 2003, according to a statement from the bourse on Thursday. The gauge tripled in value from the end of 2005 through 2007. The VN Index yesterday closed at its lowest since Aug 2, 2006.

“We’ll see a continuation of the selling,” said John Shrimpton, a director of fund manager Dragon Capital Group. “Inflation is one aspect causing the drop. The market was clearly overvalued.”

The VN Index, started in 2000, surged almost five-fold in the two years through its March 12, 2007 peak as the economy grew at the fastest pace in a decade and a government equity sale programme helped lure foreign and domestic investors.

Even after the tumble, Vietnamese stocks are not cheap enough to prompt Templeton Asset Management Ltd’s Mark Mobius to buy.

“It’s got a little way to go down still,” said Mobius, who oversees US$47bil in emerging-market equities at Templeton in Singapore. “If you’re going to go in there, you better think long term, otherwise you can get stuck with a very illiquid security.”

I've made an entry last month saying there is no point reviewing portfolio gains/losses too frequent on price basis, since it has down from last month, let me just report as it is, MUI is down from 23% gains to about 7%, so that my readers will not think I am running away. From next month onwards, I will not be reviewing by monthly basis but yearly basis.

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