Tuesday, October 11, 2011


Surprisingly number of readerships surged right after I raised cash. I suspect the level of anxiety and excitement are very high among retail investors.

Surprisingly too the markets are zooming up Fast and Furiously. Changing my stance now will make me look like a clown.

It's a powerful counter rally is going on now. There are truly a number of contrarian indicators in favor of bulls.

(1) The capitulatation indicator done by BCA Research shown that they are pretty close to the past market bottoms but no where near to extreme events or extreme bearish market like '74.

(2) Equity dividend Yield is better than 10-year yield. I mentioned this anomality before.

However, despite of all the rallies here and there, the markets are still stuck in a range bound. London FTSE and German DAX to represent European markets are in ping pong bounce.

S&P has not reached the resistance level of the upper range bound. May be still has a bit more to go.

I need to see a breakout from the range bound to be convinced to participate in the short term. Or else we will be like a dog chasing its own tail, keep chasing the wrong direction. Bought at the resistance level and sold at the support level.


Shocked ! said...

Well, maybe the readers are interested to know whether you are going to admit you mis-read the market again.....

End of day, I believe trying to time the market based on charts is really a futile exercise.

I enjoy looking at your many infomative charts and the graphs but I do not highly regard decision on buying or selling based highly on levels on levels...

snowbreeze said...

Story never end til Greek default risks gone...stil a downtrend :)

Shocked ! said...

We will never know whether this is the beginning of a new uptrend or a sharp bear rebound until it happens.....so let's watch and see