Tuesday, November 15, 2011

Buffett's inflection point?

On the road again. One of the things that I enjoy traveling on Singapore airlines is this. Like a first time middle class traveller on the plane who would cast spells on those nice knife, fork and spoon -- magically dissapeared, I would cast sapu-spells on all the reading materials on the plane - the WSJ, the Financial Times, the Economist, the Reader Rigest, homes and gardens, etc. It's a good time to think about a lot of things. Some are trivial, some are serious one. One of the more serious one is this.

Is Warren Buffett travelling trajectory approaching an inflection point?

2002 - bought Petrol China
2008 - bought BYD
2009 - all in wager for America. bought Burlington
2009 -- written S & P derrivatives bets
2011 - Repurchased own company shares. Bought IBM, Intel shares

Over the last 10 years or so, he did not put in more money in financial sector except in preferred shares like Bank of America that more of less guarantee his return . My opinin is he is taking it as a fixed-income investment than anything else. Is that a sign of banking business is a difficult space to make money for a long time?

Over the last 10 years or so, he bought into China story. He invested stocks outside the US. But his also bullish on the long term prospect of the US economy. Does that means that our grandchildren are going to live better than we are? Improving emerging economies will certainly benefits the US? At some point of time, the US people are going to make things/stuffs that emerging economies: need? --- use? --- eat? He is also seems to be concerned about energy issue.

He bought back his own company shares. Are there any other reasons beyond the simple fact of his company is undervalued? Is that a sign of too much money chasing too little return?

And now he is going into tech area. My question is did he made the decision or he let his potential sucessors made the decisions? The same question is did he already let his potential successors made many decisions over the last ten years, or may be even longer? If yes is the answer, I believe Warren Buffett is truly a person that doesn't carry a calculator but a telescope. While most people are crunching numbers he is looking beyond the numbers -- far far away in the galaxy! You get to see what your potential sucessors in actions(and validate them?) while you are alive and not when you are dead?

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