Wednesday, November 23, 2011

Market Commentatry

You may have noticed that I have been writing a lot about individual stocks lately. That's a preparation to wait for opportunity to show up. I find that the market participants are still a little too optimistic. They have not gone more bearish. I ran a list of FBMKLCI 30 and found that 20/30 stocks are below 200-day MA and another 10 stocks are abover 200-day MA.

Stocks below 200 MA
1. Tenaga
2. Genting
3. KLK
5. IOI Corp
6. MHB
7. YTL
8. YTL Power
9. HLB
10. CIMB
13. PPB
14. UMW
15. SIME
16. Gamuda
17. RHB Cap
18. Maybank
19. MMCCorp
20. AMMB

Stocks above 200 MA
2. GenM
4. Maxis
5. Digi
6. Axiata
7. BAT
10. TM

Upon closer examination, I found a lot of people still believe that they can find some kind of safe heaven. I would like to see these holders to be really be shaken. Then only, I think there is enough fear in the market that qualifies as blood on the street.

A lot of people are making references or anchoring 2008/2009 crisis. I do not believe S & P will make 666 or KLCI goes down to 800+ points. But I do believe S & P 500 ought to go down to about 950 +/- 50 points or KLCI to be around 1,250 +/- 50 points in another 3 - 6 months time.

2008/2009 was about credit crisis. It was about the whole world went into Matrix frozen moment. Can you imagine real business cannot get credit? Ships were grounded because nobody can get a Letter of Credit(LC)??? That was because the world did not how deep the derivatives hole was. European hole is known but they are just playing chess with one another - calling each other bluff. They may go to the extend of "manufacture crisis". I believe if they continue to play that game, the market participants will ask them to fly k***(wanted to use stronger words but points already got through, no dramatic words needed!).

This time is about a slow down or a low grade recession. We just have to shake off a little bit of optimism and bulls ought to charge!

P.S. Got a nice day off today. Had a nice morning hike and I felt extremely good. I need get back in shape -- and I have a plan to get up to Mount Kinabalu. Will make public announcement once I feel I'm fit enough. Have a good day everyone.

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